Damaging Wind in Maryland, August 5, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND
IT SHOULD PASS OVER OR NEAR OR REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ON THE DELMARVA
WHILE ADDITIONAL PRECIP WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES, ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING TSTMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN IN SOME
SPOTS.  FOR NOW, WE HAVE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST
AND WELL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR THE NEED TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR
OTHER STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARBY ON MONDAY, WELL LIKELY
SEE LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN OUR REGION UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS.

HOT HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH BOTH
DAYS WILL BE EQUALLY HOT.  HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY MAY BE EVEN A LITTLE
MORE HUMID THAN TUESDAY.  WEVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH FOR PHILADELPHIA AND ITS SURROUNDING COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED IN THE HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY.  THE HIGH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY FRIDAY.  THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER
WEATHER TO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NORTHEAST RADAR MOSAIC IS DEPICTING A NICE SWATH OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.  THE LEADING EDGE RUNS THROUGH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

ALL THE TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR, BUT WILL TRANSITION INTO
MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH THE RAIN. A PERIOD OF IFR CAN NOT RULED OUT.
THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE TRANSITION BACK TO VFR.

REALLY NO CHANGE IN THINKING BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND HAZE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.  THURSDAY LOOKS
DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
BOTH THE GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN H8 JET ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.  BUFKIT HAS
ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MIXING SOME GUSTY WINDS DOWN TO THE WATER.
WITH THIS IN MIND, AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF WAVEWATCH, I WILL ISSUE A
SCA FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

THE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION/MARINE...KRUZDLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

NJZ001-007>010-012>014-020-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-061200-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-
MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND ALONG
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN, STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100, EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY AT SOME TIME DURING TONIGHT
OR MONDAY.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-061200-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,
NORTHERN DELAWARE AND PARTS OF WESTERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND ALONG
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN, STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 98 TO 103 ON TUESDAY AND 100 TO 105
ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY AT SOME TIME DURING TONIGHT
OR MONDAY.

DEZ002>004-MDZ008-012-015-020-NJZ016-021>025-061200-
KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-
CAROLINE-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE,
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND ALONG
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN, STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 ON TUESDAY AND 100 TO 105 ON
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY AT SOME TIME DURING TONIGHT
OR MONDAY.

ANZ431-452>455-061200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
NEW JERSEY, THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-061200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-061200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.