Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, August 5, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
NO REAL CHANGES IN THE FCST THINKING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM12 AND
GFS BOTH INDICATE A STEADY STREAM OF DISTURBANCES MOVING OFF THE COLO
FRONT RANGE. THE ATM WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED SO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS UNLIKELY. ANY STORMS WHICH FORM WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL AND SPC HAS OUTLOOK THE AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE FCST AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
AS A BROAD H5 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN RETREATS BACK WEST LATER THIS WEEK.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRACK DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA ALMOST DAILY. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG
SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CIRCULATE
AROUND THE RIDGE PROVIDING AMPLE SUPPORT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE LATEST SIMULATION OF THE GFS SHOWS THE H5 RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
NEB LATER THIS WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. THIS TREND
WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRIER LATER THIS WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK WOULD BE
FARTHER WEST...NORTH AND EAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SURFACE DRYLINE FROM KSNY NORTH TO KPHP APPEARS TO
BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND
WIND ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AN ISOLD TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN
NEB WHERE A TRIPLE PT IS FORMING.

THE TEMP FORECAST IS THE USUAL BLEND OF NAM12 2M TEMPS...GUIDANCE
AND HPC GUIDANCE. A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE AS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TOO WARM THIS SUMMER. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTIFULLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES. ALL THIS
MOISTURE HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE EVER THERE ARE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE HIGH MOISTURE WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOP
OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS...ALONG AND EAST A KIML TO KVTN LINE.
LOCALLY CIGS OR VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR FOR AREAS EAST OF A
KLBF TO KANW LINE NEAR SUNRISE. A RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING IS EXPECTED.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-062045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
339 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2007 /239 PM MDT SUN AUG 5 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH
PLATTE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

MASEK