A thunderstorm produced gusty winds over northwest Lake Huron.
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The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A thunderstorm produced gusty winds over northwest Lake Huron.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 28, 3:28 AM EST, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 428 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007 .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E/SE HALF OF THE CONUS. 3 AM SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ROUGHLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO... ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THEN ACROSS SRN MINNESOTA. LOWER-MID LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT NOSING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING... EVIDENCED BY AC DECK NOW MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER...MUCH OF REGION WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED (AS SEEN ON 00Z MPX SOUNDING) BY AXIS OF VERY WARM AIR ABOVE 800 MB ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS WISCONSIN. SO DESPITE RESPECTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT WITH THE AID OF UPPER JET CORE PUNCHING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AS WELL AS COOLING ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TODAY...IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND MCS THREAT RUNNING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. OVERALL INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THIS LINE HAS BEEN DECREASED SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS IT WORKS INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SYSTEM LIKELY HAS ENOUGH MOMENTUM/COLD POOL DYNAMICS AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM TO SPREAD CATEGORICAL PRECIP INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS WELL AS A SMALL PORTION OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL CARRY POPS THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY. AS FAR AS A SEVERE THREAT IS CONCERNED...CERTAINLY STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC TO WORK WITH (30-50 KNOTS ABOVE 2K FEET PER MQT VAD WIND PROFILE) AND THE BOWING LIKE STRUCTURE OF THE MCS CERTAINLY RAISES A CONCERN. HOWEVER THUS FAR STABLE CONDITIONS DOWN LOW APPEAR TO BE WINNING OUT WITH NO SEVERE WIND REPORTS IN UPSTREAM OBS AS OF YET. BUT EVEN WITH THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHATS LEFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT COMES THROUGH FOR A HAIL AND WIND THREAT...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS BY MID-LATE MORNING...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE ADDITIONAL EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BACK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE DAY. BUT AGAIN...MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR (INCLUDING NRN LOWER MICHIGAN) REMAINS FAIRLY CAPPED OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS DESPITE SFC TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. STILL BELIEVE MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR NRN COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE FRONT/UPPER JET SUPPORT AND FRINGE OF THE CAP. IN FACT...TEMPTED TO REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER FROM MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CANNOT IGNORE JUICY MOISTURE AXIS SPREADING INTO THE REGION/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ETC. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM APN TO MBL BUT DRY FOR THE S/SE THIRD OF THE CWA. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OVER CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH TODAY LEADING INTO TONIGHT...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH CHANCY SIDE OF THINGS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. BUT IF ALL COMES TOGETHER CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME AREAS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. GFS CONTINUING ITS IDEA OF DEVELOPING RESPECTABLE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND RUNNING A NICE BULLSEYE OF POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST SATURDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS IDEA DOES HAVE SOME MERIT. WILL KEEP POPS CHANCY FOR NOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CATEGORICAL RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES POP UP IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF RETURN FLOW HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE CONFINES OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING AT 850MB (TEMPS BETWEEN 8-10C) AND A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH POKING INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS (850-500MB RH 20-35 PCT) SUGGEST DIURNAL CU THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOSTLY BY LATE MORNING WILL MIX OUT BY MID-AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FRONT...PLACING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z FRI. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A WEAKISH LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS ALONG IT FRIDAY MORNING DIRECTED AT EASTERN UPPER AND THE GFS EVEN SPITS OUT SMALL QPF JUST NORTH OF THE SOO. GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...BUT KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL BE PRESENT AS THE DAY BEFORE SO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S LOOK GOOD. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND CONSEQUENT WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH...AND THEREFORE IS SLOWER BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WANTS TO EXIT THE TROUGH MORE QUICKLY. EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE ANOTHER DRY DAY...THIS MOSTLY IMPACTS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS HIGHS COULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ONCE AGAIN TO THE LOW 80S. SO WILL GO MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MPC && .AVIATION...ISSUED AT 138 AM. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. THINKING IS THAT CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST. SOME CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY BE PRESENT AT PLN THIS MORNING...BUT UNCERTAIN IF ANY THUNDER WILL LINGER. SO...WILL GO WITH JUST -SHRA FOR THE TIME BEING. COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THEN APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD IT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. MPC && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 512 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007 LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008- 015>036-041-042-291000- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON- MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY- ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE- CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE- GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD- MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- 512 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING...AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STORMS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY IN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY ALONG US-2 WEST OF THE MACKINAC BRIDGE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ADAM
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 100 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:10 UTC.
3 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 54435, 54436, 54437.