Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, September 6, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
249 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A LEE TROF EXTENDING ACROSS
OUR CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA. NAM AND
GFS BOTH AGREE TODAY IN KEEPING OUR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON SO ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL MAINLY BE FROM AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG LEE TROF. WITH
THIS IN MIND WILL BE FOLLOWING SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ON THIS
BUT BASED ON EXPECTED INSTAB IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

AS OUR S/W TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS EARLY TONIGHT
OUR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO KANSAS. INSTAB AND LIFT
REMAINS MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT SO CURRENT GRIDS
WITH HIGHER CHC POPS IN THE EAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

BY FRIDAY THE OUR COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT ALL
MODELS KEEP THE BETTER 925-7H FGEN AND MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
BORDER DURING DAY. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY DID
NOTICE THAT A 7H LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OK INTO
SC KS AS A WEAK S/W TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
A 25H JET WILL CROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DRAW SOME MOISTURE AND PCPN INTO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE.

DAYS 3-7...

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

TIMING REMAINS TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MONDAY. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE MODELS IN CONSIDERATION TO TIMING
AND POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO KANSAS MONDAY. AGAIN, TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCLEAR AS DOES HOW COOL
THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE WHEN IT DOES ARRIVE. THE GFS ALSO
INDICATES COOLER TEMPERATURES AT H85 (UPPER SINGLE DIGITS) THAN THE
ECMWF (H85 TEMPS IN LOW TO MID TEENS) IN THE INITIAL SURGE BEHIND
THE FRONT. REGARDLESS, THE TREND REMAINS TO BE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TO BEGIN THE WEEK. MAY TWEAK
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE COLD FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH. THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN ALSO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING MORE
POSITIVELY TILTED THAN THE GFS. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES
EVEN BEGIN TO SHOW A FEW PERTURBATIONS LEANING TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION. HOWEVER, TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS TO WHERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MIGHT TAKE PLACE. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAN TO MAKE ONLY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE GOING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WHILE A COLD FRONT
IN NEBRASKA DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INITIALLY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  65  83  60 /   0  20  10  20
GCK  99  63  83  57 /   0  20   0   0
EHA  97  62  83  58 /  30  30   0  30
LBL  99  65  84  60 /   0  20  20  30
HYS  95  65  82  58 /   0  30   0   0
P28  94  71  85  66 /   0  30  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/32/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084-085-071015-
SCOTT-LANE-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-MORTON-
STEVENS-
510 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007 /410 AM MDT THU SEP 6 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-077>081-086>090-071015-
TREGO-ELLIS-NESS-RUSH-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-
KIOWA-PRATT-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
510 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED FROM 4 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC