A warm front stretching eastward from a lee trough, lifted from south to north across the state of Kansas through the afternoon of October 12th, to the morning of October 13th. A nocturnal low level jet slid up and over the boundary, which helped to develop and sustain deep elevated convection through the night.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A warm front stretching eastward from a lee trough, lifted from south to north across the state of Kansas through the afternoon of October 12th, to the morning of October 13th. A nocturnal low level jet slid up and over the boundary, which helped to develop and sustain deep elevated convection through the night. Robust midlevel moisture enhanced the precipitation efficiency of the storms, which led to flooding problems across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 13, 2:08 AM CST, 4 hours 37 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 308 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ATTENDANT WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR SCENARIO TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND LIKEWISE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIGHT SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM A COVERAGE SENSE. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH APPROACHING FORCING AND STRONG JET DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN SHAPING THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT THAT WILL DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE FROM SITKA TO HAYS KANSAS MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE MAIN HAZARD BEING AT BEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...STORMS WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE DETAILS AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER. UPPER LOW SLOW TO MOVE OUT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALBEIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CLING TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES...SKY...TD AND WIND WERE ALL ALTERED THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT THINKING. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. BLAIR AVIATION... TAF SITES HAVE RETAINED A BROKEN CEILING OF 7000FT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MORNING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY. REFER TO FORECAST DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. BLAIR && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 602 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-141115- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 602 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR...AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BLAIR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
601 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0554 AM HAIL BURLINGAME 38.75N 95.83W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS FALLING IN BURLINGAME.
&&
EKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0621 AM HAIL 2 W BURLINGAME 38.75N 95.87W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0619 AM HAIL 3 S HARVEYVILLE 38.75N 95.96W
10/13/2007 E0.88 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER
2 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAIN ALSO REPORTED.
&&
EKSIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 646 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007 KSZ023-024-039-131230- JACKSON-POTTAWATOMIE-SHAWNEE- 646 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007 THROUGH 730 AM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF JACKSON...EASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTHERN SHAWNEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE POTAWATOMI RESERVATION...MAYETTA AND HOYT. STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 652 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007 KSZ040-056-131215- DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN- 652 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007 THROUGH 715 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE VINLAND...BALDWIN CITY AND WELLSVILLE. STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED. BLAIR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 744 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007 KSZ040-056-131315- DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN- 744 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007 THROUGH 815 AM CDT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL. SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WELLSVILLE...VINLAND...BALDWIN CITY...AND CENTROPOLIS. BLAIR
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 78 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:44 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
One and a half feet of water was flowing over highway 24 near Williamstown. An hour after the report of flooding, 4.50 inches of rainfall was reported 5 miles Northeast of Perry.
Four to six inches of water reported to be over roadways in Hiawatha. There were also two reports of heavy rainfall in Brown county. One report of 3.70 inches was received 3 miles WNW of Hiawatha, and one report was received in the town of Powhattan.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, October 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 62809, 62808.