Flash Flooding and Flooding in Kansas, June 1 to 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXISTED IN TODAYS ANALYSIS.  A LARGE
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...AND TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES WITH TIME.  A 35 - 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.

WITH THE WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL MY INITIAL THINKING IS THAT GOOD
AREAL COVERAGE IN MEASURABLE RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.  THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS ON RADAR THAT A VORTICITY
CENTER HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE COMPLEX...WHICH WILL ALSO BE A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.  HAVE YET TO DECIDE HOW WE WILL FOCUS POPS...SO THIS WILL
BE A LAST MINUTE DECISION JUST PRIOR TO PACKAGE ISSUANCE TIME.

THE KANSAS COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE A VERY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS ZONE
OF BAROCLINICITY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN JUST ABOUT EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FINALLY BEGINS TO DRY OUT
SOME BY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF LIFT AND POSSIBLE RAIN
INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.  WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE...I CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE THEM OUT...THEREFORE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE GOING WITHIN THE GRIDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING...AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  LARGE DIFFERENCES
EXISTED BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE IN THIS AFTERNOONS MAX
READINGS.  NOT COMPLETELY KNOWING HOW TODAYS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
EVOLVE...I TOOK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO GUIDANCES.  THE REST OF
THE PERIODS I LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.  WOULD THINK
THAT EVEN THE MAV MOS IS TOO COOL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS...CLOUDS...AND
PRECIP...OVERNIGHT READINGS MAY HANG IN THE UPPER 60S.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY REACH JOPLIN AROUND 09Z AND SPRINGFIELD AROUND 11Z.
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH
TIME TO THE CONVERGE AND DURATION OF THE STORMS AND INCLUDED THUNDER
IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THE CAVITY WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
427 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
427 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
 OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF
 FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MISSOURI
 OZARKS REGION THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
 THIS AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

 A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
 MORNING...CAUSING MAINLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FREQUENT
 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
 ALSO OCCUR.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
 HEATING CAUSING THE AIRMASS TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. SUFFICIENT
 WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A DAILY BASIS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 FOR SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER
 SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
 DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
 THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

 FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
 TRACK OVER THE OZARKS. THESE FEATURES MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF
 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER