Several strong thunderstorms developed and produced a few isolated hail and damaging wind reports.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
Several strong thunderstorms developed and produced a few isolated hail and damaging wind reports.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 22, 2:54 PM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 354 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA. H500 PROFILERS INDICATE A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IN SOUTH CENTRAL NE. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS WEAKENED TO THE POINT WHERE IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE ITS POSITION...HOWEVER A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE WAS NOTED ALONG A BEATRICE TO TOPEKA LINE THROUGH NORTHEAST KS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS ONGOING THROUGH PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KS AND AS FAR NORTHWEST AS MANHATTAN AT FORECAST TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE DOWN TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES TODAY...HOWEVER THIS AMOUNT IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN VERY WEAK...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY WHEREVER THEY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION GOING THROUGH SUNSET BUT WOULD EXPECT AFTER SUNSET ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DIE OUT QUICKLY. THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA AT FORECAST TIME. GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL BRING THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE RIDGE...SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER GFS/NAM BRING ANOTHER AREA OF 305/310K ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILT IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH IS RELATIVELY RARE...AND ITS SPEED AND STRENGTH MAY BE MODIFIED BY ANY MCS THAT DEVELOPS OVER IOWA. THE NAM OFFERS THE QUICKER SOLUTION...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UKMET SOLUTION IN BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE INTO NE KS BY 15Z. GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NE KS JUST AFTER 18Z. THE TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE ON THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A FEW EXTRA HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE INSTABILITY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SO GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE NAM ADVERTISING AROUND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BECAUSE OF FEEDBACK PROBLEMS THE 22/12Z GFS HAD MUCH GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 60-70 KTS...HOWEVER THIS LOOKS VERY UNREALISTIC AS OMEGA AND VORTICITY FIELDS ARE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THEY SHOULD BE. WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR A SUPERCELL STORM MODE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AT THIS TIME. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT CLOUD COVER AND MORNING CONVECTION COULD PREVENT ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. IF THE GFS TIMING IS CORRECT COULD SEE A BIGGER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN TOO SMALL FOR A SERIOUS TORNADO THREAT...HOWEVER WITH ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS A WELL DEVELOPED SUPERCELL COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STRETCH AMBIENT VORTICITY VERTICALLY AND PRODUCE A TORNADO. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOMORROW...AND UPPED POPS INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 35. MODELS ALL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP INTO THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS IS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEM. WITH LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST...HAVE UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE ON HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FURTHER WEST MORE DAYTIME HEATING IS LIKELY SO REMAINED CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUES...GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SHORTWAVE FEATURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH CURRENT SPEEDS PROGRESSING MOST PRECIP SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CARRY A CHANCE POP ALL NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. WOULD EXPECT THEN TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ON TUESDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF WARMING ALOFT MAY ALSO GET SOME AFTERNOON ISOLD CONVECTION. WILL DIMINISH POPS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO TUES EVENING. MID LEVEL TEMPS AROUND 20C COULD GET TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SUN BREAKING THROUGH TUESDAY. WED-SUN...RIDGE THEN FLATTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN US ON WED WHILE UPPER LOW ON THE EAST COAST MAY CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ABOUT HALF THE ENSEMBLES BRING THE TROF WESTWARD WHILE THE REST CARRY IT BACK OFFSHORE. CURRENT OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND DROPS IT INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF...TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND SLIDING A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERN PROGRESS IS SLOW AS FRONT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AS TROF PROGRESSES EAST. WILL LINGER POPS INTO SATURDAY THEN CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. CERTAINLY MANY VARIABLES IN PLAY...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE MOST GRIDS. && .AVIATION... INITIAL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO HIT A TAF SITE. THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY OVER TOP AND FOE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST...HOWEVER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER MHK AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. COULD SEE LOWER CLOUDS HANG IN OVER TOP AND FOE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ONCE AGAIN INITIATES AFTER SUNSET. NEXT CONCERN IS THE PASSAGE OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME DID NOT PLACE TOMORROW CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION OVER TAF SITES BEFORE 18Z WAS LOW...AFTER 18Z COULD SEE CONVECTION NEAR TAF SITES. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && CAVANAUGH/67
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 358 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-231200- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 358 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME OF STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE SEVERE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 610 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007 KSZ036-037-222330- GEARY-MORRIS- 610 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007 THROUGH 630 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEARY AND NORTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF OLSON AND SKIDDY AS WELL AS RURAL AREAS OF THE COUNTIES.
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:28 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Approximately 8 trees with trunks up to 2 feet in diameter were blown over...near the intersection of highways 157 and 77.
A few shingles were torn off the house.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 47961, 47960, 47962.