Slow moving intense thunderstorms brought localized flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
Slow moving intense thunderstorms brought localized flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 20, 3:11 AM CST, 11 hours 42 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 411 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007 .DISCUSSION... THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA. A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKE STATES. A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...EARLY THIS MORNING THE 8Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A HAYS TO EMPORIA LINE. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS. TODAY AND TONIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS NE AND SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE 5H THROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL AMPLIFY A BIT CAUSING A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM MODEL SHIFTS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE/850MB RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS MO. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES DEEPER THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO BRING AN END TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK CAP AND SURFACE HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER LARGE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL LIMIT CAPES AND KEEP STORMS UNDER SEVERE LIMITS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECASTED IN THE MID-LEVELS...THUS IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN IN INTENSITY. THE SOUTHEAST SURFACE TO 850MB FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING. WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD KEEP THE CWA WARMER AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. && .AVIATION... CONVECTION GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE ON THE WANE NEAR THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAINLY THROUGH 14Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES. LOW LEVELS APPEAR QUITE MOIST AND PRESENT SOME MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS WELL...BUT CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND RESULTS ARE LIKELY HINDERING THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME BR DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE IF THE CONVECTION REMAINS INACTIVE. HEATING/MIXING TODAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME CEILINGS JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING THOUGH WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY 00Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-210930- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
352 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0332 PM HEAVY RAIN MANHATTAN 39.18N 96.57W
07/20/2007 M1.80 INCH RILEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER
20 MINUTE RAINFALL TOTAL. MEASURED AT THE KSU REC COMPLEX
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF KIMBALL AND DENNISON AVENUES.
0343 PM HEAVY RAIN MANHATTAN 39.18N 96.57W
07/20/2007 M2.09 INCH RILEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER
ONE AND A QUARTER HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL. 0.54 INCHES OF THE
TOTAL RAINFALL FELL IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES. MEASURED BY
THE STATE CLIMATOLOGIST.
&&
EKThe Topeka radar (KTWX), 36 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:54 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Streets were flooded on the west side of Manhattan. Nearly 2.45 inches of rain in approximately one hour near the intersection of Kimball and Dennison avenues.
Basement wall in newly constructed home buckled when water flowed up against the foundation. Up to 5 inches of rain fell. Blackjack road was barricaded and closed due to high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 47831, 47832.