Isolated thunderstorms developed in a weak northwest mid level flow along the remnants of a weak surface boundary. Hot afternoon temperatures lead to severe thunderstorms that produced damaging winds and large hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ICT wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed in a weak northwest mid level flow along the remnants of a weak surface boundary. Hot afternoon temperatures lead to severe thunderstorms that produced damaging winds and large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wichita, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 2:14 PM CST, 3 hours 52 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 314 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS HOW THE WAVE IN NEBRASKA WILL AFFECT OUR CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT. THE NEXT PROBLEM IS HOW FAST A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. TONIGHT: LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...WAS SHOWING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED STORM IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST WAS SITUATED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LATEST VISIBLE LOOP IS SHOWING SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 2500J/KG IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES FROM THIS REGION IS AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS SO THESE STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE. HOW FAR SOUTH THEY WILL MOVE BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE GFS/LOCAL WRF IS SHOWING THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR PROFILES ARE LOCATED IN CENTRAL KANSAS SO THAT AREA STANDS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME STORMS IN THAT REGION. WE INTRODUCED POPS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING TIMEFRAME. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV) MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS AN INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. MONDAY-THURSDAY: THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY CLIMB OVER THE AREA AS THE POSITIVE SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX BEGINS TO DOMINANT OVER THE LATENT HEAT PROCESS. WE ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES SINCE THE CONDENSATION PROCESS WILL TEND TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WE DID RAISE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS SINCE THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: THE LATEST GFS IS STARTING TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS IN AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND ALLOWING A FAIRLY STRONG TROF TO DEVELOP IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRAG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS STILL AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT...BUT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ON BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CAP TO OVERCOME BEFORE INITIATING ANY CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. COX && .AVIATION... FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS SE KS. BEST INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED OVER SE KS WHERE CU SHOULD BE FORMING HERE PRETTY QUICK. WITH LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. ALSO FEEL THAT SE KS STILL MAYBE IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER SE OK. THIS SUBSIDENCE MAY ALSO ACT TO DELAY CONVECTION AND ALSO MAY HELP TO KEEP IT ISOLATED. THERE MAYBE SOME SHALLOW FOG POTENTIAL OVER SE KS TONIGHT WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL BE PATCHY IF IT DEVELOPS...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LAWSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 69 94 70 95 / 20 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 67 95 68 96 / 20 0 10 10 NEWTON 68 94 69 95 / 20 10 10 10 ELDORADO 69 93 70 94 / 20 10 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 70 94 71 94 / 20 10 10 10 RUSSELL 66 98 67 98 / 20 0 10 0 GREAT BEND 66 98 67 98 / 10 0 10 0 SALINA 67 98 68 98 / 20 0 10 10 MCPHERSON 67 96 68 96 / 20 0 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 69 92 70 93 / 20 10 0 10 CHANUTE 68 92 69 93 / 20 10 10 10 IOLA 68 92 69 93 / 20 10 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 68 92 69 93 / 20 10 0 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170100- RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE- RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER- SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE- 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. TORRENTIAL RAIN...WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL OR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. STORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT OR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVE OUT OF NEBRASKA AND DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZED HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT MAY TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. && FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP HOWERTON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 438 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 KSZ091-092-152215- HARPER-SUMNER- 438 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES... AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARGONIA...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANTHONY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. JAKUB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 512 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 KSZ091-092-152245- HARPER-SUMNER- 512 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES... AT 510 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARGONIA...OR 13 MILES EAST OF ANTHONY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH STORM. JAKUB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 KSZ032-160015- RUSSELL- 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY... AT 631 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF LURAY...OR 24 MILES NORTHEAST OF RUSSELL...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE TOWN OF LURAY IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS. JAKUB
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 135 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:07 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Quarter to half dollar sized hail fell for almost 15 minutes. The quarter sized hail covered the ground.
Damaging winds also snapped 6 inch diameter tree limbs that were thrown almost 40 feet (13 meters) from the parent tree.
Measured wind gust at Luray High School by KSN Weatherlab.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 46289, 46290, 46291.