Tornadoes and Hail in Indiana, April 11, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVR ERN IL EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO SW IND.  SFC LOW PRES OVR SE IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NE WITH A N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT FCST TO MOVE EAST ACRS THE
AREA TONIGHT.  VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDED AREA OF BROKEN
CLEARING MOVING INTO WRN IND AT 19Z.  SCTD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BOTH ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SOMEWHAT STRONG SFC HEATING COMMENCING ACRS ERN IL ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER 50+ DEG DWPTS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE PCPN.

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SO
THEREFORE WILL USE A BLEND.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS CENTRAL IND
LOCATED IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED 250MB JET STREAK.
 EXPECTING SCTD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACRS AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS
BELOW -20 DEG CELSIUS MOVING IN OVERTOP LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.  AS 500MB SPEED MAX OF 100KTS CONTINUES TO
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS IN COMBO WITH
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMS SHOULD YIELD THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT STORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL.  THE
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S.  MODELS
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LINGERING CHANCE OF PRECIP THURSDAY.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY.  WHILE THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND -5 TO -6 DEG C WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A
SCENARIO.  NOT EXPCTING MUCH RECOVERY IN TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS LOW
CLOUDS REMAIN IN AREA AS INDIANA RECEIVES WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL ALONG WITH A
WEAL INVERSION THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT SO WILL GO A LITTLE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THURS NIGHT.  THAT SAID WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.  NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NE BY LATE
THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SYSTEM.  THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SLOWER TIMING FOR
PRECIP AS WELL.  HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE VERY FAR SW CORNER OF THE
CWA ON FRI MORNING.  KEPT THE INDY METRO AREA AND NORTH DRY UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  KEPT THE TERRE HAUTE AREA DRY UNTIL 21Z.  AFTER 00Z
LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.

AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM ARKANSAS TO TN/KY IT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.
850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS ALSO WEAKENS.  WOULD EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP TO FALL IN THE SOUTHERN CWA IN THE 00Z-12Z TIMEFRAME WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

FOR TEMPS FRI NIGHT HAVE GONE WARMER WITH LOWS AS CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS.

SATURDAY...WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM AND
ENSEMBLES TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER.  THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA MAY
SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A POSSIBILITY.  AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE IT AS ALL RAIN AS ITS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT IN
TIME FOR EVEN A SLIGHT CHANGE TO KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN THAT DAY.  BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST AND
HAVE TAPERED POPS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THIS TIME PD.  TEMPS WILL FINALLY MODERATE
CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MON/TUES NEXT WEEK.

&&
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

LOW PRESSURE WL MV THRU NW OF THE SITES DURING THE PD AND DRAG A CD
FNT THRU INDIANA BY AROUND 0Z. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT ASSOC WITH
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 1930Z TO 0100Z
PERIOD.  HAVE GONE WITH VCTS TO CONVEY COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT AND MAY NEED TO MAKE AMENDMENTS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING. IFR CIGS
AND VISBYS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPCT TO
DVLP.  EXPECTING A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF PRECIP TO
HAVE MVFR CONDS AS LOW LEVEL CIGS MIX OUT AND VISBYS IMPROVE. IFR
CONDS EXPTD TO RETURN AROUND 05Z FROM WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOC WITH HIGHER RH AIR.

&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SMITH/SH
LONG TERM...SALLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 AM EDT WED APR 11 2007

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-068>072-120815-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
415 AM EDT WED APR 11 2007 /315 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ067-120815-
KNOX-
315 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

LOWLAND FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE WHITE RIVER. FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO END TODAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PUMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
409 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     HAIL             5 WSW BRAZIL            39.50N 87.21W
04/11/2007  E0.25 INCH       CLAY               IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SMITH