Damaging Wind in Illinois, June 27, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
215 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION SUPPORTS PERSISTENCE STRATEGY
FORECAST OF LINGERING EVENING POPS. AFTER THAT WE GET TO FOCUS MORE
ON THE INCOMING BOUNDARY...WHICH ALL MODEL RUNS HAVE SPIKED
NUMERICAL POPS THU-THU NIGHT-FRI...AND ENDED POPS NW TO SE
W/BOUNDARY DEPARTURE BY FRI NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONTINUANCE OF
PRIMARY THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN AND LIKEWISE SUPPORT SPC OUTLOOKS OF
GEN RISK THRU EVENTS END. THIS IS NOT TO SAY ISOLD HAILER/WIND IS NOT
POSSIBLE AS IN DAYS PAST BUT SHOULD BE ISOLD.

NAM MODELLING THIS AM OF NEAR TERM CONVECTION WAS NOT AS FAVORABLE
AS DAYS PAST AND SO PERSUADED A GFS LEAN THIS PACKAGE. IT HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING FRONT INTO PIC LATE TONIGHT SO WE WONT
WIPE OUT POP IN ENTIRETY AFTER EVENING...ESP NORTH AND WEST. HIGH
PWS SUPPORT HPC WET FORECAST ESP THU-FRI WITH FRONT. PLAN TO
COLLABORATIVELY BLEND PEAK POPS AND END POPS FOR BEST FIT.

TEMPS END UP A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WITH AGAIN PERHAPS A MAV BIAS
GIVEN THE FAVOR TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS SEEMS TO MESH WELL
WITH NEW MEX MOS AND EXTENDED PACKAGE...WHICH SHOULD BE DRY AND
REBOUNDING AGAIN IN TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE FORECAST OF THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE AT ANY ONE SPOT IS
DIFFICULT...WILL AMEND FORECASTS AS NECESSARY FOR CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR
TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THE APPROACH OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ACT ON A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
425 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
425 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SCATTERED MAINLY HEAT OF THE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PRIMARY THREAT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
RELAY OF ANY ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

DRS