Several smaller rounds of rainfall during the first week of January set the stage for a heavy rain event about mid-month. The Ohio River responded quickly.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Several smaller rounds of rainfall during the first week of January set the stage for a heavy rain event about mid-month. The Ohio River responded quickly. Minor flooding occurred along the river.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 14, 3:45 AM CST, 8 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 345 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007 .DISCUSSION... FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE TO RISE UP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS LOW MAY ACTUALLY SERVE TO EDGE THE FRONT BACK NW TO NEAR THE OH RVR LATE TODAY. THUS...WILL BE QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NEAR LOWER 60S SE COUNTIES AND LOWER 40S NW. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO ACT TO ENHANCE PRECIP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER BOUT OF HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. MANY AREAS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 3 INCH RANGE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HIGHEST RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT EVEN NW AREAS COULD GET CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAIN. ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES OF RAIN HERE AT THE WEATHER SERVICE...AND MUCH OF SE MO AND WRN KY HAVE SEEN FLOODING PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT IS NOT GOING TO TAKE MUCH RAIN TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING. SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO NEAR 0 LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OH RVR AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THUS...WILL KEEP CHC THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ISOLATED SEVERE. OF COURSE...ANY CONVECTION WOULD ENHANCE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. STILL LOOKS LIKE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO SE MO AND SW IL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE. SFC FREEZING LINE HAS CORRESPONDED VERY WELL WITH THE 1000-850MB 1328M LINE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. THAT LINE COMES SE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND MOVES EAST TO NEAR THE OH RVR BY DAYBREAK MON. THIS FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP...BUT COULD BE A WINDOW OF A FEW HOURS WHERE THE RAIN GOES OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. MOS AND MODEL TEMP PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING TEMPS AT THE SFC UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...BUT MANY TIMES THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THE LEADING EDGE OF ADVANCING SHALLOW COLD AIR VERY WELL. AIR WILL BE WAY TO WARM ALOFT TO SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIP...SO SNOW AND SLEET APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN THE EXTENDED...FOLLOWED HPC CLOSELY...WHICH SEEMS TO FAVOR THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. LATEST GFS RUN HAD AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH THE ENSEMBLES DO NOT HAVE. THUS HAVE KEPT THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD DRY. WENT WITH COLDER ETA MOS TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. EVEN WENT A BIT COLDER THAN THE ETA MOS LATER TONIGHT. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ALL ZONES. MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ALL ZONES. IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ALL ZONES. IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT ALL ZONES. && MEFFERT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1043 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007 ILZ087-090-091-094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-151645- GALLATIN-POPE-HARDIN-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK- SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD- 1043 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO FALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. ESPECIALLY IF THE RAIN IS HEAVY AND OCCURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS HEIGHTENED. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA RIVERS...REFER TO THOSE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A MIXED BAG OF LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER THAT COULD COME IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET...OR SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT WINTRY ACCUMULATION IS A POSSIBILITY BEFORE IT ENDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. REFER TO THOSE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS WELL AS ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR MONDAY MORNING. ILZ075>078-080>086-088-089-092-093-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114- 151645- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-UNION IL-JOHNSON-ALEXANDER- PULASKI-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY- BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 1043 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO FALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. ESPECIALLY IF THE RAIN IS HEAVY AND OCCURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS HEIGHTENED. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA RIVERS...REFER TO THOSE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A MIXED BAG OF LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS A LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET...OR SNOW MONDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT WINTRY ACCUMULATION IS A POSSIBILITY BEFORE IT ENDS. AREAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. REFER TO THOSE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS WELL AS ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
At Brookport, where flood stage is 37 feet, the Ohio River crested at 39.3 feet on the 16th. This resulted in minor flooding. Bottomland fields and woodlands were flooded, along with some river access roads.
At Grand Chain, where flood stage is 42 feet, the Ohio River crested at 44.4 feet on the 16th. This resulted in minor flooding. Bottomland fields and woodlands were flooded, along with some remote access roads.
At Cairo, where flood stage is 40 feet, the Ohio River crested at 42.14 feet on the 16th. This resulted in minor flooding. Bottomland fields and woodlands were flooded, along with some remote access roads.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, January 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 7457, 7456, 7455.