High Wind and Winter Weather in Hawaii, February 1 to 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU FEB 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG KONA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET PORTIONS OF
THE ALOHA STATE TODAY. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IN THE KAUAI CHANNEL
THIS MORNING WILL MARCH SLOWLY DOWN THE CHAIN...REACHING OAHU LATER
TODAY...AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND FRIDAY...AND CLEAR BY FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER THE
FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT EAST
WINDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...BASED ON BOTH BUOY AND BEACH OBSERVATIONS...SURF ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES HAS DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND
THE ADVISORY WAS JUST CANCELLED. IN ADDITION...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS
AND TEXT FORECASTS TO ATTEMPT TO TIME THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND...
ACROSS OAHU TODAY AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND TO BETTER
DELINEATE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST MAUI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT HAS ITS LEADING EDGE JUST NORTHWEST OF OAHU AT 930 AM...
WITH A WEAKENING ROPE CLOUD ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE...AS SEEN IN
VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE BAND IS CREEPING SOUTHEAST...AND WILL
MOVE OVER NORTHWEST OAHU SHORTLY...AND SOUTHEAST OAHU THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS
RATHER SLOWLY AND UNSTEADILY DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...WHICH MAKES
PRECISE TIMING DIFFICULT BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. BASED ON A MIXTURE
OF EXTRAPOLATION AND MODEL GUIDANCE...BELIEVE THE CLOUD BAND WILL
MOVE ACROSS MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND
FRIDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL COME WITH THE FRONTAL BAND ITSELF...AND
WITHIN PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AIMED AT SOUTHEAST MAUI AND WESTERN BIG ISLAND. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO HEAVY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IF TRAINING OCCURS IN THE ACTIVE
PREFRONTAL BANDS.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS ARE DOWN FROM YESTERDAY...WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ARE STILL BEING REPORTED BY ANEMOMETERS
ALONG THE WAIANAE RANGE...AND UP TO 35 MPH ON OAHU/S WINDWARD
COAST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO UPDATE OAHU FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON TO REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

UP ON THE SUMMITS...CONTINUED WINDY. AS THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGS INTO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT SUMMIT LEVELS WILL TIGHTEN EVEN
FURTHER...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE HAS EASED ON THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY VEER
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY...
AS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLANDS BY SUNDAY. A VERY DRY
AND COOL AIR MASS BROUGHT IN ON THE NORTH WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES
AIDED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING...WILL GIVE US TROPICAL-TYPE CHILL BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR RECORD LOWS AT
SOME LOCALES. WE ARE EXPECTING NEARLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND...EVEN AT THE NORMALLY WETTEST SPOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN WATERS DUE TO LARGE SEAS AND STRONG W TO SW WINDS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL CONTINUE AWHILE LONGER...AND THE SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING THRU 6 PM FRIDAY FOR HALEAKALA...MAUNA LOA AND
MAUNA KEA SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY THRU 4 PM TODAY FOR MUCH OF OAHU...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
KAHOOLAWE...MUCH OF MAUI...AND MUCH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRU 6 AM FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.

&&

BIRCHARD