Drought in Georgia, November 1 to 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY...AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  BY WEEKS END...ANOTHER EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA. LATE ON SUNDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL PUSH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTENING LLVL WAA ADVECTION PATTERN HAS PROMOTED THE EXPANSION OF
HIGHER BASED STRATOCU SINCE SUNSET ACRS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MTNS AS PER LATEST FOG PRODUCT IR LOOP. 18 UTC GFS/NAM
MODEL TIMEHEIGHTS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING LLVL MOIST
LAYER...AT LEAST UNTIL UPGLIDE FLOW WEAKENS AFTER 09 UTC. HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO ENCROACH FROM THE NW AS WELL. SO...WILL CALL IS PARTLY CLOUDY
IN THE MTNS VERSUS MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP THURSDAY MINS 10-15 DEG F MILDER THAN
THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF
THE NC FTHLS AND MTN VALLEYS WHERE LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS.

A DRY COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA BY AROUND NOON
THURSDAY. ALL THE MODEL T-SECTIONS OF RH STILL INDICATE THAT THERE
JUST WON/T BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO EVEN PUT SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THIS
FROPA. IN FACT...IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
STILL CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN ADDED DOWNSLOPE
EFFECT TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN
SHORT RANGE PROBLEMS CROP UP ON FRIDAY WITH REGARD TO THE WIND AND
THE HUMIDITY. AT THIS POINT...WHATS LEFT OF NOEL ARE PROGGED TO STAY
WELL TO OUR EAST...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO MAKE IT A BREEZY DAY. MIXING WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW BUT THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR 25MPH GUSTS
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE ALSO DISAGREE ON THE RH
FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND EVEN NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS MAKING IT DOWN
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. FOR THAT REASON...THE LOW MAV NUMBERS
LOOK LIKE THE SAFER BET AND THE FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED IN THAT
DIRECTION. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY AND QUIET WITH WEAK UPPER AND
SURFACE RIDGING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT COULD MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BUT ITS PASSAGE WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS A TROF DIGGING A BIT DEEPER OVER THE EASTERN
US THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH A SHORT WAVE DIGGING DOWN INTO NC
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS NO BETTER THAN BEFORE. UNLESS THIS
CHANGES...EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO STAY TO
THE NORTH. AFTER THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH...UPPER RIDGING
SUPERIMPOSED ON THE EASTERN LONG WAVE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER UPPER TROF/SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING SEEMS OKAY...MOST LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BUT THE GFS HAS SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP IT GENERATES. THINK IT BEST FOR NOW TO LIMIT ANY
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ENDING ANY REMOTE PRECIP POSSIBILITIES. TEMPS
WERE VERY CLOSE TO LATEST HPC GUIDANCE SO CHANGES ARE MINOR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLVL WAA FLOW REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAIN...IF NOT EXPAND IN
CVRG...VFR LVL STRATOCU FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
BEING ABOUT 10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YSTDY...WILL BANK ON
EXPECTED CLOUDS TO KEEP VSBYS NOT WORSE THAN MVFR...EXCEPT AT
KAVL...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR LEADING TO IFR FOG
LIKELIHOOD DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOMORROW...WITH SIG WX CONCERNS LIMITED TO PERHAPS WIND.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...PROVIDING MORE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FALLS APART
BEFORE REACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
509 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-010915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
509 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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