Damaging Wind in Georgia, July 17, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN NEAR TERM IS THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TO
EXPECT EACH PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT...STILL EXPECTING RATHER WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF THUNDERTORMS...AT LEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE NC
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS. MODEL DETAILS NOT EXACTLY IN AGREEMENT...BUT
THEY DO AGREE THAT AN AREA OF DECENT LIFT/OMEGA WILL MOVE FROM NE
GA...ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND INTO NC AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATEST RUC
FORECAST ALSO SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. THEREFORE WILL FORECAST LIKELY
POPS IN THE UPSTATE...WESTERN NC THIS EVENING TRANSITIONING INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT FOOTHILLS 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. COULD HAVE A RATHER DECENT
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EVOLVE SO I HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP THE QPF FIELD FOR
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND
HAVE CODED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG FILLING IN BEHIND THUNDERSTORMS.
STAYED WITH MOS BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ON WED. THE QUESTION AGAIN
IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION TO EXPECT. FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
GOOD SO I HAVE ACTUALLY GONE BELOW SREF POPS. RESULT IS SOLID CHANCE
POPS MOUNTAINS RANGING TO LOW CHANCE PIEDMONT AREAS. ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR WED PER MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA AMPLIFIES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIVES INTO ITS BASE. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE EXTINGUISHED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW ON
THURSDAY...DEEP MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
UPPER IMPULSE SUGGEST THAT LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER. BY THE TIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY WANES THURSDAY EVENING...THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTION MAY LINGER LATER
INTO THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND AND STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE
GULF WILL BE CLOSED DURING ITS PASSAGE...SO FOR NOW POPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO HIGH CHANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY...DESPITE FALLING HEIGHTS...IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY UNDER
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IS A
FRONT WHICH STALLS SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO KEEP
WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AT BAY. WITH A EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...SOME CHANCE MAY EXIST FOR UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN GA AND SC...WHICH
WILL NOT BE AS DEEPLY INTO THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. POPS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM HPC GUIDANCE...BUT MAY STILL BE
A BIT HIGH FOR HPC SKY COVER...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY.
BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY LOW HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND THE COOLER SURFACE
MASS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS BECAUSE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE
RATHER WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAYBE HANG ON AS
LATE AS MIDNIGHT AROUND KCLT. RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SC/NC WITH NUMEROUS OVER NE GA. ALTHOUGH GFS/NAM
DIFFER IN THE THEIR DETAILS...THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF
SIGNIFICANT LIFT/OMEGA WILL TRAVERSE UPSTATE SC INTO NC FROM ABOUT
00Z-06Z. RUC LENDS SUPPORT FOR THIS AS WELL. SO I AM TRENDING TOWARD
FORECASTING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO MOVE FROM NE GA...ACROSS UPSTATE
SC AND INTO NC PIEDMONT BY 04Z. BULK OF THIS MAY STAY SOUTH OF KAVL.
THUS...HAVE INCLUDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER AT ALL SITES
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SINCE I AM EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL
WHICH SHOULD SATURATE LOWER LEVELS OF COLUMN...HAVE ALSO FORECASTED
LATE NIGHT IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG. EXPECT IFR CONDTIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 15Z ON WED.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  WED
AND THU AFDTERNOONS. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM...AND VERY BRIEF IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
EARLY MORNING IFR/MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN OCCURS...AND
KAVL WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS EACH MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN A THUNDERSTORM. THE FRONT WILL SHUNT RAINFALL
AND MORNING FOG TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SAT AND SUN.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-180945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
539 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING PENNY SIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1239 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

NCZ049-050-171715-
MITCHELL-YANCEY-
1239 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN YANCEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

AT 1235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF BUSICK...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SPRUCE PINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SPRUCE
  PINE...MICAVILLE...LEDGER...CELO...BUSICK...BANDANA AND
  BAKERSVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

NCZ033-050-171745-
AVERY-MITCHELL-
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MITCHELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 109 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAKERSVILLE...OR 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SPRUCE PINE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SPRUCE
  PINE...MINNEAPOLIS...LEDGER...INGALLS...BANDANA AND BAKERSVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

NCZ033-501>503-171830-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BURKE...NORTHERN
CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF GLOBE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
BLOWING ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UPTON...
  PATTERSON...GLOBE...EDGEMONT AND COLLETTSVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

GAZ010-171945-
RABUN-
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RABUN COUNTY THROUGH 345
PM EDT...

AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NACOOHE LAKE...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF
CLARKESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  RABUN...NACOOHE LAKE...LAKE BURTON...TIGER...MOUNTAIN CITY...
  MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK...LAKEMONT AND CLAYTON.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

GAZ018-SCZ001-004-172015-
GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-STEPHENS-
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN STEPHENS AND SOUTHERN
OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE HARTWELL...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF TOCCOA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  HARTWELL...TOCCOA...WESTMINSTER...WALHALLA...SENECA...OAKWAY AND
  LONG CREEK.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

GAZ028-172030-
HART-
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HART COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF VANNA...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CARNESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO VANNA...
  REED CREEK...NUBERG...HARTWELL...CANON AND BOWERSVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.