Florida, 2007

High Surf and Heavy Rain in Florida, October 28 to 30, 2007

October 28 to 30, 2007 · NWS JAX · 6 events in 4 counties and zones

A strong surface ridge over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic and Tropical Storm Noel over the Caribbean produced a strong northeast flow regime over our local area. Strong and persistent onshore flow produced bands of heavy rainfall, high and rough surf as well as caused tidal flooding along our coastal counties.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.

A strong surface ridge over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic and Tropical Storm Noel over the Caribbean produced a strong northeast flow regime over our local area. Strong and persistent onshore flow produced bands of heavy rainfall, high and rough surf as well as caused tidal flooding along our coastal counties.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 28, 8:42 PM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 28, 8:42 PM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

.UPDATE...WSR 88D SHOWING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTING ALONG THE NE
FL COAST THIS EVE...BUT ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN. NAM/GFS SHOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS COMING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
HEAVIEST PCP ALONG THE NE FL COAST. HAVE GONE WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY OF NEAR AN INCH ALONG THE COAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
INLAND. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST
TONIGHT WHERE WIND SPEEDS THERE WILL EASILY MEET THE CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE NE FL TAF SITES...VCSH WITH PREVAILING MVFR.
TEMPO IFR AT CRG DUE TO REDUCED VSBY FROM SHOWERS TIL AROUND 04Z.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL NE FL TAF SITES AS NOSE OF NE 40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT SSI...VCSH WITH PREVAILING
CIGS AROUND 3000-4000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...ALREADY SEEING NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE COAST SO
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE GALE WARNING EARLIER TONIGHT. WILL SEE
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE FLOODING AT
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

PP/JH/AW
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 28, 3:00 PM EST, 8 hours before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-291000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
400 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM
EDT THURSDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...

A SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTER EVENT WILL IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SURF. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. REFER TO THE HAZARD MESSAGES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE NORTHEASTER SETS IN...
MOST LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

...COASTAL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...

THE PROLONGED NOREASTER EVENT WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF NEAR GALE STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH SURF
WILL BRING AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK...AS WELL AS LIKELY BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. TIDES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND
TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LATE WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES ESPECIALLY
FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME COASTAL
AREAS MAY RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN BY MID WEEK AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK/PETERSON

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 high surf, 2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Rain, Flagler

When
October 28, 11:00 PM EST to October 29, 11:30 AM EST
Where
Flagler County, Bunnell
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
29.470, -81.260

The Flagler county EM reported the following rainfall totals since midnight of 2 to 5 inches across Flagler county. Some the highest amounts were 4.91 inches at the Flagler Emergency Operations Center in Bunnell and 5 inches in South Flagler Beach.

High Surf, Flagler

When
October 29, 9:29 AM EST to October 30, 9:10 PM EST
Where
Flagler forecast zone
Reported by
Fire Department/Rescue
Coordinates
29.471, -81.293 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Flagler Beach Fire Department reported breakers of 7-8 feet with some occasionally higher breakers around 10:29 am on 10/29. By 11:30 am, emergency management reported that the Flagler Beach pier was closed around 10 am due to high surf. Minor beach erosion began and the surf was around 6-7 feet. On 10/30, Flagler Beach reported surf of 6-7 feet. Later that day around 2:30 pm, water was over the seawall in Palm Coast. Around 3:05 pm, water was over the seawall by 6 inches in Palm Coast. Tides were running about 1 to 2 feet above predicted values. Around 2:28 pm on 10/29, moderate beach erosion was reported along the Flagler county coast. There were 6 dues closed on the north side and four on the side side of the county coast. Around 3 pm, tidal flooding at the county owned Princess Estates Preserve was reported. The campground along Pelicier Creek has tidal flooding in 3 campsites with water up to 2 feet deep. Tidal flooding was also observed on the Stiles Creek Causeway into the campground where standing water caused hazardous driving conditions which prompted the county to close campground temporarily. Around 330-345 pm on 10/30, high tides rose the water 1 inch from the top of the seawall along the inland Palm Coast salt water canal. Princess Estates Preserve Park was closed due to water from Stiles Creek which rose 3 inches from the main road going into the park. A few trees fell down across the county due to saturated grounds. One tree along Ballard Lane in Palm Coast fell on a parked vehicle (no injuries).

High Surf, Duval

When
October 29, 9:29 AM EST to October 30, 3:30 PM EST
Where
Duval forecast zone
Reported by
Fire Department/Rescue

The Jacksonville Beach Life Guard Station reported breaker heights of 4-5 feet with some 6 foot breakers around 1029 am on 10/29. Around 11:54 am, the Mayport NOS tide gauge measured 6.82 ft MLLW which was 0.75 ft above predicted levels. At 1230 pm, ocean flooding produced 10-12 inches of water over campground sites at Talbot Island and a portion of Fort George was flooded. At 12:36 pm, the Fernandina Beach tide gauge measured 8.91 ft MLLW which was 1.41 ft above predicted levels. At 330 pm, the Jacksonville Beach Life Guards reported ocean water came through an adjacent beach access area to the Red Cross building and flooded portions of a parking lot. The guards also reported breakers of 5-8 ft with moderate to severe beach erosion. At 857 pm, Jacksonville Beach was closed where four boards designed to break away during high surf were knocked out, according to broadcast media. On 10/30, the Oak Landing tide gauge on the Intercoastal Waterway measured 4.4 ft above MLLW at 3:12 pm. Around 430 pm, water entered backyards near Oak Landing according to a NWS employee.

High Surf, St. Johns

When
October 29, 10:28 AM EST to October 30, 12:30 PM EST
Where
St. Johns forecast zone
Reported by
NWS Employee

At Guana River State Park around 11:28 am on 10/29 the surf was around 8 ft. Around 11:30 am, rough waves and strong northeast winds sunk a boat at the harbor near the Bridge of Lions in downtown St. Augustine (no injuries). At noon, the back porch of a residence at 2561 South Ponte Vedra Blvd. was washed into the ocean. High surf and tides eroded about 12 feet of sand from this residence which was about 4 miles south of Guana River State Park. Stairs leading to the ocean nearby were washed away, and several backyards along the oceanfront were flooded. Minor street flooding was reported in Vilano Beach and many beach walkways were washed away. Around 6 pm, about 5 miles south of Guana River State Park, a home located at 2800 block of Ponte Vedra Beach Blvd. South was in danger of collapse due to coastal erosion. A 25-foot seawall had been built in front of the home a week prior, and the surf undermined the wall. About 3 to 7 feet of Ponte Vedra beach was eroded. Several roads had to be closed in St. Augustine due to flooding from the inlet which included Kings Street between Ponce De Leon Blvd. and Malaga Street. By 6 pm, high tides and 7-10 ft breakers produced severe beach erosion in the Summerhaven area north of Marineland. On 10/30 around 1:30 pm, the ocean reached the dunes about 3 miles south of Guana River State Park and was eroding the dune line. Several homes at 2855, 2859, and 2861 Ponte Vedra Blvd. South could have collapsed due to severe erosion. An empty lot at 2855 lost 10 feet of property between noon and 1:30 pm. Dirt was being dumped into the lot in an attempt to stabilize the properties on either side of it.

Heavy Rain, St. Johns

When
October 29, 11:08 AM EST
Where
St. Johns County, 0.91 mi NE of St Augustine
Reported by
NWS Employee
Coordinates
29.890, -81.310

An NWS employee reported several inches of water covering the roads in downtown St. Augustine near Flagler College and St. George Street. About 3 inches of rainfall accumulated since midnight.

High Surf, Nassau

When
October 29, 11:36 AM EST
Where
Nassau forecast zone
Reported by
Other Federal Agency
Coordinates
30.611, -81.771 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Fernandina Beach NOS gauge reported 8.91 ft MLLW which was 1.41 ft above predicted tide.

What these are

Heavy Rain
Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.
High Surf
Large waves breaking on the shore that caused damage, erosion or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Florida in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, October 2007

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 64689, 64692, 64701, 64702, 64690, 64703.