Coastal Flood in Florida, May 8, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

CORRECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST
WHILE SENDING SWELLS INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. BEACH EROSION AND SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN PALM BEACH COUNTY DUE TO
THE SWELLS AND COMBINED HIGH TIDE, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
PROBLEM ALSO EXTENDS INTO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE AS WELL, BUT ON A
SLIGHTLY LESSER SCALE DUE TO SWELLS BEING SLIGHTLY SMALLER. BUOY
10 EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL STILL SHOWS DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 16
SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH WAVE HEIGHTS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SWELL OF 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG PALM BEACH COUNTY AND SWELLS OF 8 TO
12 ALONG MIAMI-DADE INTO MIDDAY, THEREFORE THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUED
EROSION AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEM AT HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM. ALSO, THE HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WAS ALSO EXTENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE
SWELLS IN THE ATLANTIC. AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEATHER... VERY FEW
RAIN OPPORTUNITIES EXIST THIS WEEK AS A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORID, ALTHOUGH BY THE WEEKEND MORE MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA AND A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL RESUME
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS. AS LOW PRES MOVES W TOWARD THE GA/SC COAST...NNW
WINDS CIRCULATING ABOUT THE SYSTEM MOVING CLOUDS 4000 TO 6000 FT
SOUTHWARD ALONG FLA E COAST. THE N/NW WINDS MOVING OVER THE GULF
STREAM HAVE GENERATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT ONLY PBI MAY HAVE VCSH
THIS MORNING. AS WINDS BACK TO W THROUGH DAY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. AT APF...CURRENT NE WINDS BACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD BECOMING W LATER TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THIS
MORNING IN THE GULF COASTAL AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS THIS MORNING
DUE WINDS. IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SWELL
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, BUT LOWER SWELLS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH A MORE CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON IT IS
LIKELY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 35%. THEREFORE, A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MORE
THAN 4 HOURS OF SUB 35% RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXCEPT MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY, ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN MAINLAND MONROE WILL
LIKELY DROP TO AROUND 35% FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE WIND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND USHER IN MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND PUSH MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THAT RHS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID 30S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT DURATION MAY NOT BE MET. THIS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES/WARNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  81  63  84  66 / -  10 10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  64  84  68 / -  -  10 -
MIAMI            82  63  85  66 / -  -  10 -
NAPLES           79  61  82  66 / -  -  -  -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-
     FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ068-
     FLZ072-FLZ074.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ068-FLZ072-
     FLZ074.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...04/TINGLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED DATE/TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
550 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

FLZ063-066>075-082200-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
550 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING EAST COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WAVES: NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH A LARGE
NORTHEAST SWELL, WILL KEEP GULF STREAM SEAS TO ABOVE 12 FEET TODAY
AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH
MAJOR BEACH EROSION OCCURRING. SURF WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS.
MARINERS NEED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH AND VERY ROUGH AT THE MOUTHS
OF BAYS AND INLETS LEADING TO THE OPEN OCEAN.

FLOODING: THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WITH HIGH TIDE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH WATER
REACHING STRUCTURES OR EVEN ROADS ALONG THE BEACH FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY, COMBINED WITH
THE LARGE NORTHEAST SWELL, WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. WINDS
DECREASE WEDNESDAY BUT A LARGE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A MODERATE TO LARGE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, KEEPING
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ELEVATED FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

THE SWELLS WILL ALSO KEEP THE GULF STREAM SEAS QUITE HIGH, WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7 FEET OR HIGHER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
151 AM EDT TUE MAY 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 AM     HIGH SURF        JUPITER                 26.93N 80.10W
05/08/2007                   PALM BEACH         FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH SWELLS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ARE CAUSING COASTAL FLOODING
            NEAR JUPITER INLET. A LIFE GUARD OFFICE AND GARAGE IS
            SLIDING INTO THE SURF. ATTEMPTS TO SHORE UP THE BUILDING
            HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. ALSO ABOUT 100 FEET OF COAST HAS
            BEEN ERODED AND THE ROAD LEADING TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF
            JUPITER INLET IS UNDER WATER AND IS CLOSED.

&&

TINGLER