Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, May 14, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
313 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE JUST COMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST AND ITS INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
DECREASE. GFS40 SHOWS A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AND LIKELY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK
AND SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS40 SHOWS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO CUBA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND BERMUDA
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN SEEN BEFORE RECENTLY AND
NEVER MATERIALIZED. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE IF A LOW DOES DEVELOP.
NEVERTHELESS, 88-D PAINTS LOTS OF ACTIVITY WITH OUTFLOWS. THOUGHT
EARLIER THAT STRONG STORM MAY FORM BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
JUST HIGH PRECIP. AND SMALL HAIL EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL A LITTLE SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING 5 TO 6 MILES IN HZ, BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WILL BE LEFT IN THE TAFS
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING, AND IN FLL AND PBI OVERNIGHT FOR
NOCTURNAL STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW AND THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN, HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

.MARINE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
WITH LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS MAINLY LESS THAN 5 FEET. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE BY FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF THE
LOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN MATERIALIZES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER AS THE MINIMUM RHS
EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOVE 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  84 / 50 70 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  73  84 / 50 70 40 60
MIAMI            74  86  73  85 / 50 70 40 60
NAPLES           68  85  69  85 / 40 60 40 60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1102 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

FLZ063-066>075-150300-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
1058 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND THUS
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE BEACHES OF
PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE THREAT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WATERSPOUTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM OVER THE
COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY MAY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT.

WIND: THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

HAIL: SOME OF THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE HAIL
UP TO ONE INCH MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

FLOODING: SOME STANDING WATER IN POORLY DRAINED LOCATIONS MAY
OCCUR IN BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW DECREASE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION, EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

TINGLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1041 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

FLZ073-074-141515-
WESTERN DADE FL-DADE METROPOLITAN FL-
1041 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

AT 1038 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ONSHORE NEAR HOMESTEAD FROM BISCAYNE
BAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS FUNNEL CLOUD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

TINGLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

FLZ073-075-142030-
WESTERN DADE FL-MAINLAND MONROE FL-
405 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLAMINGO...MOVING WEST AT 10
MPH.

EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED HAIL...
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

70/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
407 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

FLZ069-070-142030-
EASTERN COLLIER FL-WESTERN COLLIER FL-
407 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

AT 407 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARCO ISLAND AIRPORT...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MARCO ISLAND...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED HAIL...
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

70/DD