Hail in Florida, July 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
141 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. IN THE SUMMER...THE MAIN DRIVER OF OUR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
IS THE HEATING OF THE LAND MASS AND THE RESULTING SEA BREEZES. THE
STRENGTH OF THE SEA BREEZE IS WHAT DETERMINES WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE...AND THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE /THE BERMUDA HIGH/ IS WHAT
DETERMINES HOW STRONG THE SEA BREEZES WILL BE.

CURRENTLY...THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS WEAK AND HAS BEEN PUSHED WELL
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...AND THIS WOULD NORMALLY BRIDGE ACROSS THE
DECAYING BOUNDARY...HELPING TO RESTRENGTHEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE
NAM IS DOING JUST THAT...WITH MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
AREAS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...AND TO
THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS
NOT SO QUICK TO BRIDGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS
DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COASTLINE
WHICH KEEPS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRAPPED TO THE NORTH. THIS
LOW JUST MEANDERS OFF THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD. THE DISTRIBUTION
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OF EACH SOLUTION ARE ABOUT AS FAR APART
AS THEY COULD BE. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WOULD MOVE BACK TOWARD THE GULF COAST
LATER IN THE DAY. THE GFS WOULD HAVE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY MOVING WELL INLAND...WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. SINCE THE GFS HAS
BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW AND THE SLOWER
DECAY OF THE BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO STICK WITH ONGOING FORECAST
WITH WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING.

EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE AND HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE OVER THE NATURE COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OCCUR.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR AND 40
PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. IF WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES...MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL BE OVER WITH BY SUNSET FOR THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WHILE THE INLAND COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING
FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING-THURSDAY PERIOD IN TERMS OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GFS INSIST IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE WHILE ECMWF AND DGEX ARE KEEPING A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH NO CLOSED LOW FEATURE. DESPITE THESE
DISCREPANCIES...IT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HAVING TROUGHINESS DOMINATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
GENERALLY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS CLOSED LOW SHOWN BY GFS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE IN BRINGING STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA...IF IT
MATERIALIZES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD FOR WINDS...AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS/WX FIELDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH DOMINANT WESTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE CONVECTION PATTERNS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH CELLS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN MOVING INLAND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH MAYBE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES ON THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT FMY AND RSW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SEA
BREEZES INTENSIFY AND MOVE INLAND. TEMPOS ARE IN PLACE FROM 18-22Z
FOR POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR UNDER HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WILL PUSH FURTHER
INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AND SEAS WILL REMAIN 3
FEET OR LESS EXCEPT BRIEFLY ROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH NO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CONCERNS. LOTS OF LIGHTNING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS COULD POSE PROBLEMS IN AREAS THAT DONT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  89  75  89 /  20  60  40  40
FMY  74  90  74  90 /  20  60  20  40
GIF  75  90  74  91 /  30  70  40  50
SRQ  73  89  73  89 /  20  50  20  40
BKV  71  88  71  89 /  20  70  40  40
SPG  78  88  78  88 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE....JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...REYNES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
630 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-021700-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-
630 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

CORRECTED WRONG DAY OF WEEK IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...LIGHTNING IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING LATE THIS
MORNING...FIRST ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD INLAND. COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE TO NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
IN THE EVENING. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...HOT AND HUMID SURFACE
CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME STORMS TO
BECOME PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS...WITH CLOUD TO GROUND FLASH
RATES IN EXCESS OF 100 STRIKES IN 15 MINUTES OR LESS. THOSE
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFETY QUICKLY IF AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP.

REMEMBER...LIGHTNING KILLS WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF
THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT
UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
SLOW MOVEMENT OF SOME OF THIS AFTERNOONS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALLOW FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES. SHOULD
THIS RAIN OCCUR IN URBANIZED AREAS...MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WILL RESULT. RESIDENTS...PARTICULARLY MOTORISTS PLANNING TRAVEL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF URBAN FLOODING.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
THE HEAT INDEX...A MEASURE OF HOW IT FEELS WHEN TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY ARE COMBINED...WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 100 AND 102 THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS...OR OUTFLOWS FROM THEM...ARRIVE.

RESIDENTS SHOULD USE THE FOLLOWING SAFETY TIPS:
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...BEFORE YOU GET THIRSTY. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT
AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY
MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. STAY NEAR AIR CONDITIONED LOCATIONS IF
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON. INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED
AS WELL...WITH A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN.
SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...SLOW STORM
MOTION...AND ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STRONGER STORMS...AND FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCES WILL BE MONDAY
THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW AREA RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE AND WHILE LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUMPING INTO THE RIVER BASINS WOULD
INEVITABLY PRODUCE MINOR FLOOD CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT FAST
RISING RIVERS SUCH AS THE LITTLE MANATEE IN SOUTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTY AND THE MANATEE RIVER IN NORTHERN MANATEE COUNTY.

RESIDENTS...PARTICULARLY THOSE NEAR THESE AND OTHER FAST RISING
RIVERS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

RKR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
151 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

FLZ050-021830-
PINELLAS-
151 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT PINELLAS PARK AND LEALMAN...
UNTIL 230 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...
CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL
PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

EJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
221 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

FLZ052-021900-
POLK-
221 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST POLK COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT RURAL NORTHERN POLK
COUNTY...LOUGHMAN...AND DAVENPORT UNTIL 300 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO
TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

JLC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
225 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

FLZ048-049-021915-
HERNANDO-PASCO-
225 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HERNANDO AND NORTHERN
PASCO COUNTIES...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTH AT 8 MPH...WILL AFFECT MASARYKTOWN...
UNTIL 315 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...
CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL
PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

JLC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
244 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

FLZ049-021930-
PASCO-
244 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ZEPHYRHILLS...

A THUNDERSTORM NEARLY STATIONARY...WILL AFFECT ZEPHYRHILLS...UNTIL
330 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE
PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

JLC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
248 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

FLZ051-021915-
HILLSBOROUGH-
248 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

AT 248 PM EDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR LITHIA PINECREST ROAD. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE STORM MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY AFFECT...
  LITHIA.
  BOYETTE.
  FORT LONESOME.

RESIDENTS CAN ALSO EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
RAINS...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 2792 8207 2765 8207 2765 8233 2797 8225

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
259 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             ZEPHYRHILLS             28.24N 82.18W
07/02/2007  E0.50 INCH       PASCO              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ZEPHYRHILLS.

&&

COLSON