Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in Texas, July 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
452 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX EAST OF
SAN ANTONIO APPEARS TO ALSO BE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE COASTAL BEND. MSAS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED
TO THE SOUTH OF LAREDO WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM
OVER THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

MODELS KEEP THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...DO NOT FORESEE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING MUCH THIS
MORNING. EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL
COUNTIES INTO THE VICTORIA AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE SEABREEZE TO
PUSH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE INLAND THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FOCUSED OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS PROVIDING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
REGION WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MORE OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GENERALLY
IFR/LIFR IN AND NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WET WITH 2+INCH PWATS AND THE UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE AREA EJECTING
A SHORT WAVE ACROSS S TX...AND COMBINING WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AND
ABUNDANTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. TRICKY PART WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIP
AND LOCATION OF SFC/LOW LEVEL FORCING. FOR NOW AM THINKING BEST CHC
FOR PRECIP DUE TO LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL BE INLAND AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE GFS IS SHOWING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHIFTING
FROM W TO E ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE WHILE STORM MOTION ACROSS THE
W ZONES SHOW AN EASTWARD MOTION AND ACROSS THE E ZONES STORM MOTION
IS PROGD TO BE NORTHWARD. THEREFORE AM THINKING INITIAL CONVECTION
WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA BUT SHIFT NE THRU THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW TUE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INTO
TUE EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THE W AND NW CWA. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN W OF THE REGION THROUGH WED PROVIDING CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR
LIKELY STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL SUPPORT...BROAD BRUSHED THE LIKELY POPS FOR
WED. THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS FARTHER W THRU THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EACH DAY BECMING DRIER IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WITH DECREASING RAIN CHCS AND WARMING TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  76  87  76  88  /  80  60  70  30  50
VICTORIA          85  74  87  74  88  /  90  60  80  30  60
LAREDO            92  76  93  76  92  /  50  60  60  60  60
ALICE             89  76  89  75  89  /  80  70  80  50  60
ROCKPORT          86  78  87  79  88  /  70  50  60  30  50
COTULLA           90  74  91  74  89  /  60  60  60  60  60
KINGSVILLE        89  76  88  76  90  /  80  70  70  40  50
NAVY CORPUS       87  79  87  79  88  /  70  50  60  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

TT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
507 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

GMZ230-235-TXZ229>234-239>247-030000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-LA SALLE-
MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
507 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND FLOODING
OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE LIKELY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF
SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE  THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TOTAL AMOUNTS
OVER 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/TE