Drought in Florida, December 1 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. HAS CREATED AN AREA
OF ENHANCED WINDS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND EXTENDING INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME EVENING SHOWERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PORTIONS OF GLADES
AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT KAPF TOWARDS DAWN...SO ADDED A TEMPO
BR GROUP THERE FOR THE 10-13Z TIMEFRAME. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN SO KEPT THIS MENTION OUT OF
THE EAST COAST TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ARE
BECOMING MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...WITH
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. OVERALL...THIS WILL BE THE GENERAL THEME
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AND WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL FORECAST POPS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY DECEMBER. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...IF ANY...WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE NOCTURNAL PERIODS...
AS LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WILL BE
MAINTAINED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOG THREAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT WILL MENTION
PATCHY INLAND FOG FOR ONE MORE NIGHT...AS FLOW MAY BE A BIT
LIGHTER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS IMPLYING. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY...AND WILL FOLLOW BLENDED FWC/MAV/MET GUIDANCE
CLOSELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE...AND WILL MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MORE AMPLIFIED POLAR STREAM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENING THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA BY END OF THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS
UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...WITH A
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST WEAK RETURN
FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY...AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVE AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING AS WINDS GO NEAR
CALM. THE PATCHY FOG WILL GENERALLY BURN OFF A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR APF
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. APF WILL GENERALLY SEE A WESTERLY WIND UNTIL
AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO NEAR CALM AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE ARE NO MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...AS EASTERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE...WITH PREVAILING SEAS IN
THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES STILL APPEARS REASONABLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  82  69  81 / 10 -  10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  82  72  81 / 10 -  10 10
MIAMI            71  84  71  83 / 10 -  10 10
NAPLES           68  83  66  83 / 10 -  -  -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-011000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
818 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.