Tornadoes and Hail in Colorado, May 14, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
346 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

CURRENTLY...FRONT IS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND NORTH OF US160.
MESONET SITES IN HUERFANO COUNTY SUGGEST FRONT IS ALSO THROUGH THIS
REGION.  BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHEAR IS BETTER TO THE NORTH.  BULK SHEARS ALONG HIGHWAY
50 IS AROUND 30 KNOTS...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE.  HOWEVER...IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY MAY PUT OUT SOME SEVERE HAIL BEFORE
DISSIPATING.  FURTHER NORTH...SHEAR IS BETTER AND ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MORE HEATING.
WV ALSO SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE CENTERED IN EASTERN UTAH WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HELPING TO INTENSIFY THE CONVECTION.

TONIGHT...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MORE STABLE DURING BY LATE
EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION DECREASING.  SCATTERED
POPS WERE KEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS PV LOBE
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...WITH THE DEEP UPSLOPE LAYER OVER
THE REGION.  ON THE PLAINS...POPS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

ON TUESDAY...COOL UPSLOPE DAY ON THE PLAINS...WITH ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING STABLE.  UPSLOPE FLOW IS DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH THE HIGH
VALLEYS.  OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE UPSLOPE LAYER MAY BE SHALLOW
ENOUGH FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO MAKE IT UNSTABLE.  THE SCATTERED POPS
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WERE KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
--PGW--

.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AS BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A MINOR
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP MAINLY DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY
MOVE OFF THE EASTERN MTS AND ONTO THE WESTERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE
QUICKLY DYING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...DIRTY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL PROGGED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODELS STILL INDICATING
DECENT QPF BULLSEYES ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MAY BE SUFFERING SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BEST POPS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE AS A PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. LATEST
MODELS INDICATING A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR BETTER CHANCES
OF STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. -MW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

06/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1223 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

COZ058>089-093>099-151300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1223 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL UP
TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO 1/2
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL
UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.