High Wind in Colorado, June 6, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1212 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

.UPDATE...
MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO TODAYS INHERITED FORECAST. 12Z GFS AND NAM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED WINDS SLIGHTLY BELOW PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION THICK CI CONT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIMIT SOME THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING. IRREGARDLESS CURRENT MCCOOK WIND PROFILER INDICATES 700
HPA WINDS AROUND 45 KTS AND LOCAL OBS CURRENTLY INDICATING WINDS
STARTING TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. GIVEN THE ABOVE...CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY APPEARS ON TRACK AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING.

WITH THE DENSE CI CLOUD COVER...DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...DESPITE MODEL 850 HPA TEMPS REACHING TO AROUND 31 DEG C.
ALTHOUGH LLVL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING
DRY LINE...TSRA CHANCE APPEAR MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STOUT CAP...SO MAINTAINED DRY FCST.  CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM MDT WED JUN 6 2007/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THREAT FOR LOW END WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS/PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT/POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND HOW MUCH COOLER IT WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY OFF THE OREGON COAST
WILL EMERGE INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BY 00Z...LIFTING NORTHEAST AND
REACHING NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS LINGERS BEHIND.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH NEAR 100 IN THE
HILL CITY AND MCCOOK AREAS. A FEW RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN. 850
TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 15-22 ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY (2-9 F)...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE THE HILL CITY AND
MCCOOK AREAS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE HIGH. FURTHER
WEST WARMER AIR RETURNS TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WINDS. WILL GO FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY TODAY AS 800MB WINDS FROM THE
GFS/NAM (NAM ABOUT 5-10KT HIGHER) AVERAGE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 40
TO POSSIBLY 50KT RANGE. IF THE NAM VERIFIES BORDERLINE WARNING
CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE REACHED GENERALLY FROM TRIBUNE TO COLBY
AND NORTON KANSAS AND POINTS EAST. GIVEN THESE WINDS ARENT
EXPECTED TIL 21Z OR SO WILL LET DAYSHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT NEW
MODEL DATA AND MAKE THE DECISION TO UPGRADE OR STAND PAT.

A SECONDARY SHOT OF 40+ KT 800MB WINDS COMES INTO THE AREA SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO RE-ISSUE OR EXTEND THE CURRENT ADVISORY IF
FULL MIXING IS REALIZED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SHOT OF STRONG WINDS ENTERS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD BE DECOUPLED DURING THE TIME THESE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE MOVE IN SO NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT.

APPEARS THAT THERE IS A BIT MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BOTH ALONG THE
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/MID LEVEL FORCING AND STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDE
WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. IF THE 4KM
WRF VERIFIES THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MADE NEED TO ADJUSTED
FURTHER WEST. REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS DRY WITH ZERO OR NEAR
ZERO POPS AS VERY STABLE LAPSE RATES AND NO CAPE DEVELOP.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 AM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1054 AM MDT WED JUN 6 2007 /1154 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MDT (10 AM CDT) UNTIL
9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL PREVAIL BY THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA...MAINLY FROM A RAWLINS TO LOGAN COUNTY LINE AND POINTS
EAST. WHILE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PREVENT STORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
EARLY THIS EVENING. WHETHER THEY DEVELOP OR NOT DEPENDS ON HOW
FAST THE DRY LINE SURGES EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP IT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT BUT
REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

DDT/CLK