Flash Flooding and Hail in Colorado, June 26, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
218 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WITH DEEP INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. CAPES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE
COMMON ALONG AND EAST OF I-25...WITH A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE KS BORDER
NEAR 3500 J/KG AS OF 20Z. MOST AREAS NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPS...WITH
VERY LITTLE CIN LEFT IN LAPS 19Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE EAST. LACK OF
STRONG UPPER FORCING SEEMS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS
TODAY...WITH LIFT FROM VERY WEAK S/W TROUGH COMING OVER THE RIDGE
FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA.
SUSPECT STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET STORMS
GOING...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOWS FROM MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION PUSH EAST INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS. 0-6
KM SHEAR GENERALLY 30 KNOTS OR LESS WILL LIMIT SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH WITH SUCH HIGH CAPES...CANT RULE OUR SOME HAIL UP
TO PERHAPS PING PONG BALL SIZE AND 50 KNOT WINDS.

TONIGHT...LEFT THE CURRENT SET OF GRIDS PRETTY MUCH INTACT...WITH
LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS CAN HANDLE A QUICK
INCH OR 2 GIVEN DRY WEATHER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS. WESTERN VALLEYS
AND MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY...WITH ANY
STORMS WEST OF THE SANGRES ENDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

WEDNESDAY...APPEARS A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO. HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR LOOK REASONABLE...WITH LACK OF FORCING
PERHAPS LIMITING THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF STORMS IN THE EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH GRIDS/GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT.  --PETERSEN

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WEDNESDAY...
...HEAT WAVE EXPECTED TO START THIS WEEKEND...

WILL SEE MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO CAPE ONCE AGAIN IN THE 1500-2500
RANGE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN ON TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE
NRLY DIRECTION...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE THE GREATEST THREAT
OF SVR OR HVY RAINFALL TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. NAM12
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY BLOWING UP CONVECTION OVR THE WET MTS AND
SANGRES/CULEBRA RANGE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TAKE THE FORM OF AN
MCS..WHICH WILL SLOWLY SWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

COOLER WX WILL LINGER INTO THU...WHEN WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE THE
THREAT OF STORMS FIRING UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY FRI THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY AND HOT
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE MADE FEW
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GRIDS SINCE THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT AND INHERITED GRIDS REFLECT THE EXPECTED TRENDS. DUE TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
AND REMOVED POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE 596+ DM HIGH WILL
BE PARKED OVR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. DEBATED KEEPING MTN POPS IN
FOR THIS PERIOD...SINCE THE GFS RARELY PICKS UP TERRAIN DRIVEN
CONVECTION UNDER A RIDGE THIS FAR OUT. BUT IN THIS CASE...WITH
EXTREMELY LOW LAYER RH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...IT LOOKS LIKE A
CLASSIC DRY PATTERN...WHEN EVEN THE MTS STAY PRECIP-FREE. GFS MOS
IS NOW PROGGING 100 DEGREE DAYS AT KPUB FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBLE
OUTCOME GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN. ALL OF THIS DRY AND HOT
WEATHER IS GOING TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE FIRE RISK OVR SE
COLORADO. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TSRA OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA AT KCOS AND KPUB LOOK
REASONABLE...WHILE VCTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR KALS WHERE STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. WILL LIKELY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OVER
THE PLAINS THROUGH ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING AS STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOP.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

10/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
656 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2007

COZ058>089-093>099-271300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
656 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO...ESPECIALLY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG
BALLS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF INTENSE RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE THREAT OF
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND A
FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.