Wildfire in California, July 1 to 3, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
125 PM PDT SUN JUL 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FAR INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BECOME PATCHIER AND SHALLOWER...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

OTHER THAN PATCHES OF MARINE STRATUS LEFT AT THE COAST...SKIES ARE
SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY
AT 19Z IN MOST AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION OVER THE
CA BIGHT...KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE AT KSAN...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN CHECK. ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH TUE BRINGING STEADY WARMING. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER
WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
THEN CLEARING TO THE COAST BEFORE NOON EACH DAY. BY TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND INLAND VALLEYS COULD
BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. NEAR THE COAST...STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND SURFACE OCEAN WATER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL COMBINE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU...THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD GET CLOSE TO 120 IN THE LOWER DESERTS...AND AROUND 110 IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK. IT STILL APPEARS EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA COULD BE MET IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND FOR INLAND PORTIONS
OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP FROM THE
INLAND VALLEYS TO THE COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE 70S IN THE AFTERNOONS. IF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS FRI THROUGH
SUN AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
COOLING LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A MOISTURE INFLUX FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS REPEATEDLY...BUT IT GETS
PUSHED BACK WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS. NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK SOMETIME. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR...SUSPECT IT WILL VERIFY AT SOME POINT. IN ANY CASE...
IT WILL NOT SHOW UP IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
011815Z...LATE MORNING MDCRS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH HAD LOWERED TO AROUND 700 FEET FROM THIS MORNING. SOME
RECOVERY OF THE MARINE LAYER TO AROUND 1000 FEET IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS A WEAK EDDY CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 800 FEET MSL SHOULD MOVE BACK ONTO THE
COAST BY SUNSET THEN PUSH LOCALLY INLAND INTO THE LOWER COASTAL
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. COASTAL AIRPORTS SUCH AS KSAN AND KCRQ SHOULD
RECEIVE CEILINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND KSNA COULD RECEIVE A CEILING BY
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. CLEARING OVER THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BEGIN
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE WITH RAPID CLEARING TO THE COAST
BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.

ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES...CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED IN THE DESERTS AND SOME INLAND
VALLEY AREAS THIS COMING WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT KPSP AND
NEARBY AIRPORTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 115 AND 120 DEGREES BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. KONT SHOULD REACH
100 TO 105 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NOTE...THERE IS STILL A COMMS PROBLEM PREVENTING THE KONT ASOS METAR
FROM BEING DISSEMINATED. THE CONTRACT OBSERVER AT KONT CONTINUES TO
RELAY THE METAR VIA FLIGHT SERVICE. HORTON

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
105 PM PDT SUN JUL 1 2007

CAZ042-043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-021300-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
105 PM PDT SUN JUL 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL BRING THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR SO
FAR TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 115 TO 120 DEGREES
IN THE DESERTS...AND 110 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 90S...ALTHOUGH THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES BELOW 5000 FEET
WILL EXCEED 100.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE MET FOR SOME OF THESE
AREAS...MOST LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTH SWELL WILL
CREATE ELEVATED SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT MANY BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

JAD