Flash Flooding and Lightning Strike in Arkansas, September 4 to 5, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
236 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
KLZK RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF A BAND OF SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...MOVING NORTH INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORCING FOR THE INDICATED CONVECTION.

SEVERAL ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER
LOW OVER WEST TEXAS MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
LATE IN THIS PERIOD.  EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...SOME PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD...EXITING THE
STATE BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 80S...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  82  70  84 /  60  70  70  60
CAMDEN AR         72  83  72  86 /  50  70  70  40
HARRISON AR       68  79  68  83 /  60  70  70  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  82  72  86 /  60  80  80  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  83  72  85 /  60  70  70  50
MONTICELLO AR     71  86  72  86 /  40  60  60  40
MOUNT IDA AR      71  81  70  85 /  60  80  80  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  80  68  83 /  60  70  70  60
NEWPORT AR        70  83  71  85 /  50  70  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     72  85  72  86 /  50  70  70  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  81  70  85 /  60  80  80  50
SEARCY AR         70  83  72  85 /  60  70  70  50
STUTTGART AR      72  85  72  86 /  50  70  70  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...219

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF ARKANSAS
TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. LITTLE OR NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REPORT OR TWO
COULD OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANES HENRIETTE AND
FELIX COULD GET INGESTED INTO THE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT
ARKANSAS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE CHANCE OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND THEN MAY STALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ABOUT MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME...NO MORE THAN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING COULD EXIST ESPECIALLY
IF THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND HURRICANE MOISTURE GETS INTO
THE SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

29