Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, July 12, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
244 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BUSY SHORT TERM PERIOD SETTING UP...AS SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ALONG WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THAT. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE STORM HAS MANAGED TO LARGELY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS...AS H5 RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW...INTERACTING WITH SURFACE FEATURES
AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MCS FORMING IN THE PANHANDLES REGION OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM RIDING THE MEAN FLOW
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AFFECTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SCENARIO COULD
BE REPEATED FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA
BY EARLY FRIDAY...AS RAINFALL HAS EXCEEDED GREATER THAN 100 PERCENT
OF NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS COULD EXCEED TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD. HOWEVER...TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH FOR SOME
TIME...CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF MOSTLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  85  70  87 /  50  50  20  20
CAMDEN AR         70  91  70  88 /  50  60  30  50
HARRISON AR       63  82  66  84 /  40  40  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  86  70  88 /  50  60  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  87  71  89 /  50  60  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     72  88  70  88 /  50  60  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      66  87  66  87 /  50  60  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  85  67  88 /  40  40  20  20
NEWPORT AR        68  86  70  89 /  50  50  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     71  87  72  87 /  50  60  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  86  67  88 /  50  60  30  20
SEARCY AR         69  87  70  89 /  50  60  20  20
STUTTGART AR      71  86  73  88 /  50  60  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS
FROM OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A FRONT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM FROM MENA TO FORDYCE AND MONTICELLO. THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.

RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...OR IN
AREAS SOUTH OF HARRISON AND AUGUSTA. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

YET ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT A GOOD PORTION OF ARKANSAS
ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW...THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE FRONT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT GIVING WAY
TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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