A thunderstorm produced flash flooding about one mile north of Holbrook on Highway 77.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A thunderstorm produced flash flooding about one mile north of Holbrook on Highway 77.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 16, 2:09 PM MST, 4 hours 46 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 200 PM SUN SEP 16 2007 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TODAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. ALONG WITH THE RAIN...EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. A TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY MONDAY EVENING. DIVQ FIELDS SHOW MODERATE DEEP-LAYER UPWARD FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. 12 AND 18 UTC KFGZ SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THUS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY...AND LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE DYNAMICAL PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. TRAINING STORMS RESULTING IN EXCESS PCPN AMOUNTS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW APPROACHING 40 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL DROP DOWN THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS NEXT LOW MAY ALSO TAP MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...FOR A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAYS FIVE THROUGH SEVEN. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DB && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER AT 11-14 KFT MSL WITH A CHANCE FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS TSRA AND SHRA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS THE STRONG BREEZY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TO AVIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. RB && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670 IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MST FOR ZONES 004>010-012-013-015-016-037>040. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1145 AM MST SUN SEP 16 2007 AZZ004>018-037>040-170700- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 1145 AM MST SUN SEP 16 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM MEXICO TODAY...CAUSING AN OUTBREAK OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER 9 AM MST THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST AND MOST FREQUENT STORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING MUCH OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. THE STRONGER STORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST. THERE WILL BE A MODEST THREAT OF FLOODING TODAY DUE TO THE STORMS REDEVELOPING AND AFFECTING THE SAME AREAS MULTIPLE TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE STRONG STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 101 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:57 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm with heavy rain produced flash flooding over Highway 77 about one mile north of Holbrook.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 60276.