Flash Flooding and Hail in Arizona, July 27 to 29, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 PM PDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY AND GRADUALLY BRING DRIER AND INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AIR TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE SATURDAY OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST
ARIZONA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ONCE AGAIN THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY WITH COLLIDING BOUNDARIES HELPING TO SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY WEST OF MOHAVE COUNTY HAS BEEN ISOLATED DUE TO
ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ALOFT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. MORNING
SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SOME CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL NEVADA
SATURDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT EVENTUALLY
WORK BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. STILL EXPECT MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND WILL LEAVE THE HIGHEST
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA. REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL
SEE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH AROUND THE HIGH.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE WARMEST DURING THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...REMAINING
FIVE PLUS DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  MOISTURE INCREASES ON TUESDAY AND
REMAINS HIGH AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD BACK TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA.  INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY TO
REFLECT THIS TREND AND DECREASED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MOHAVE COUNTY...TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST.

&&
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY AWAY FROM THE
TERMINAL TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST ALONG THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS
CORRIDORS.  WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AND BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET.  CEILINGS ABOVE 10K FT CAN
OCCUR THROUGHOUT OF THE DAY AND EVENING AS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE VEGAS VALLEY MOVE OVERHEAD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN NEVADA
MOUNTAINS.  MID LEVEL CEILINGS IN THE 10 TO 15K FT LEVELS COULD ALSO
OCCUR AS BLOW OFF OR REMNANTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9PM MST FOR ZONES 001/003.
.CA...NONE.
&&

GORELOW/81

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
637 AM PDT FRI JUL 27 2007

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ519>527-NVZ014>022-281400-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
637 AM PDT FRI JUL 27 2007 /637 AM MST FRI JUL 27 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 15. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BUT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PER STANDARD PROCEDURE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
221 PM PDT FRI JUL 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     HAIL             25 SE CALIENTE          37.36N 114.19W
07/27/2007  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NV   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT BEAVER DAM.

&&

81