Heavy rain from a thunderstorm produced a flash flood and mudslide across Copper Mine Road.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Heavy rain from a thunderstorm produced a flash flood and mudslide across Copper Mine Road.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 4:20 PM MST, 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 420 PM MST MON JUL 23 2007 .SYNOPSIS...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LED TO VERY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. AS THE STORMS HAVE FEATURED A SOMEWHAT TROPICAL MICROPHYSICAL PROFILE...THEY HAVE BEEN PROFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS AND RADAR ESTIMATIONS. FOR THIS EVENING...SATELLITE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER BUT MORE WIDESPREAD...ALTHOUGH WITH A FEW HEAVIER CELLS STILL EMBEDDED IN THE SYSTEM. IF THE TREND CONTINUES...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY 900 PM MST AS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 945 AM MST...DEEP AND VERY MOIST BUT LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...WITH A 500 MB HIGH CENTER AROUND NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE KFGZ SOUNDING INDICATES 1.05 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER (THE SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO)...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE PROFILE. THE PROFILE SUGGESTS EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. WITH WEAKER FLOW TODAY COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY...EXPECT VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH DIRECTIONS DOMINATED BY LOCAL SCALE WIND FIELDS GENERATED BY SURROUNDING STORMS. THE LONGEST LIVED STORMS WILL POSE THE RISK OF FLOODING RAINS. A WEAK WESTWARD PROPAGATING INVERTED TROUGH IS THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PRODUCING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AZ. THIS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION SOMEWHAT...SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS UP TO A FEW HOURS FROM NORMAL...BUT AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING...SUCH AS SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY...WILL SEE NO DELAY. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...THEN IT APPEARS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A MORE DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER NORTHERN AZ FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. IFR THRESHOLDS MAY BE REACHED IN THESE STORMS AS WELL...BUT ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCAL AREAS WITH HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP BY 18Z ON TUESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 900 PM MST AZ ZONES 004>018-037>040. && ONTON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 255 PM MST MON JUL 23 2007 AZZ004>018-037>040-240700- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 255 PM MST MON JUL 23 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MANY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MANY STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY FROM THE HEAVIER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INCLUDING COCONINO COUNTY...YAVAPAI COUNTY...NAVAJO COUNTY...APACHE COUNTY...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH (PRODUCT PHXFFAFGZ) FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1137 AM MST MON JUL 23 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1135 AM HAIL 5 N ASH FORK 35.29N 112.49W
07/23/2007 E1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
1 INCH HAIL 1130 TO 1135 AND CONTINUING
&&
BYRONPThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain from a thunderstorm produced a flash flood and mudslide on Copper Mind Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 52491.