A strong winter storm produced heavy snow over the Kaibab Plateau.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A strong winter storm produced heavy snow over the Kaibab Plateau.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 3:15 PM MST, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 315 PM MST TUE FEB 27 2007 .SYNOPSIS...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH COLD WINTERY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD AND WINTERY DAY IS IN STORE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ON FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER ARIZONA IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ARIZONA STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WIND GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM FROM HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS...THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET AND BY TOMORROW MORNING THEY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO VALLEY FLOORS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DECREASES IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD AND WINTERY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. BY FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE FIFTIES AND SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY. BOHLIN && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF 20-30KT WITH GUSTS BTWN 40-50KTS... DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN WILL DEVLP OVER NW AZ AFT 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING DOWN TO 1-3KFT. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SEWD TO KGCN/KFLG/KFMN BY 03-06Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. DB && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST FOR AZ ZONES 4>17-39-40. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 518 AM MST TUE FEB 27 2007 AZZ004>017-038>040-280700- BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO- LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN COCONINO CO- LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN NAVAJO CO-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF 264- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS 264 NORTH- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- 518 AM MST TUE FEB 27 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR...APACHE...COCONINO...NAVAJO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING...SEE THE WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT (PHXNPWFGZ) FOR DETAILS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS... BUT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY WITH POOR VISIBILITY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS...BUT SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. JJ
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
A strong winter storm produced heavy snow with near white out conditons at times over the Kaibab Plateau. Eighteen inches of new snow fell at Jacob Lake and 22 inches of new snow fell at the North Rim Entrance.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, February 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 16786.