A 985 MB Low in the Western Gulf of Alaska weakened to 991 MB near Middleton Island early on the morning of Friday, November 2nd. A strong front moved onto Prince of Wales Island around 0600 AKST 11/2.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A 985 MB Low in the Western Gulf of Alaska weakened to 991 MB near Middleton Island early on the morning of Friday, November 2nd. A strong front moved onto Prince of Wales Island around 0600 AKST 11/2.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 2, 12:00 AM AKST, 1 hour earlier.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
600 AM ADT FRI NOV 2 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...A WELL DEFINED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM ALONG
A PAGS-PASI LINE AT 12Z EXPECTED TO BE PAWG-PAKT LINE AROUND 18Z
AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GALE
FORCE TO SOLID SMCR SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS. THE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9 AM FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL.
BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY AND BRIEFLY GAIN A NW
COMPONENT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE GOING TO OPEN CELL SHOWERS. WITH COLDER AIR POLLED UP
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SEE A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS MIX
WITH SNOW OR ICE PELLETS. RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN ALL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON THAT AGAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW IN COLDER LOCALS LATE
TONIGHT.
GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE GULF WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SMCR
WIND NOW OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BUILD AROUND A 15 FOOT SWELL TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT.
.LONG RANGE...STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON BOTH LARGE AND
SMALLER SCALES OVER THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. THE
INITIAL IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW
INTO THE ERN GULF LATE SUN INTO MON. GFS STILL TAKING IT FURTHER
E THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET. STILL PREFER THE MORE WRN TRACK OF THE
ECMWF/UKMET AS THERE SHOULD BE A RIDGE BUILDING JUST E OF THE
AREA...STRONGER THAN GFS HAS IT. THE RIDGE IS A PROBLEM BETWEEN
THE MODELS FURTHER OUT...AND THUS THEY DIFFER ON SEVERAL OTHER
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS LATER NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...DECIDED TO
KEEP THE LATE SUN INTO MON SYSTEM AS IS...THEN WENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WAS PREFERRED BY
THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTERS OVER THE GFS. ECMWF DOES HAVE
RATHER DEEP LOWS LATE NEXT WEEK...AND ENDED UP CAPPING THE WINDS
WITH BOTH LOWS TO MAX GALES AS CONFIDENCE IN SUCH STRONG SYSTEMS
DEVELOPING AND THEIR TIMING IS STILL RATHER LOW.
USING THE NEWER ECMWF...THE RIDGE THAT IT HAD YESTERDAY FOR NEXT
WEEK WAS NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED IN TODAYS RUN...THUS THE LARGE
NWD SURGE OF UNUSUALLY WARM AIR HAS LESSENED. DID LOWER TEMPS A
BIT FOR THE LAST 2-3 DAYS OF FORECAST TO TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR THE AREA THOUGH. ALL IN
ALL...CONFIDENCE IS NOT BETTER THAN MODERATE FOR ANY PART OF THE
LONG RANGE...AND IS RATHER LOW BEYOND THE MON PERIOD.
.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY AKZ018,026-029 UNTIL 9 AM
MARINE...GALE PKZ036 THIS MORNING
SMCR REMAINDER INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
MM/RWT1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The cooperative observer at Craig observed a wind gust of 64 MPH at 0600 on November second.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 63181.