A gale force Low developed in the Western Gulf on Thursday, Jan. 4th.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A gale force Low developed in the Western Gulf on Thursday, Jan. 4th. This main Low stalled in the Central Gulf while the associated strong fronts moved onto the SE Alaska Coast Thursday Night. These fronts did not significantly erode the cold air that was over the Panhandle. The result was that heavy snow occurred on Thursday Night and Friday.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 6:40 AM AKST, 16 hours earlier.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1140 AM AST WED JAN 3 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A POTENT WINTER WEATHER STORM
TO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ONE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS NOW OVER THE GULF WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA LATER
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE ALEUTIANS AND MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GULF WILL DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE REGION. IT WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE.
THE THURSDAY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL PARTS
OF THE GULF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A TRIPLE POINT LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
THE EXACT POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS OF NOW...THE TRIPLE POINT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM JUST NORTH OF SITKA TO JUST SOUTH OF JUNEAU. WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE LOW SHOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SITKA TO FIVE FINGERS. THE PATH OF THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW IS NOT CERTAIN...SO WILL NOT UPGRADE THE WATCH
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A HEAVY SNOW/WINTER STORM WARNING MAY
BECOME NECESSARY FOR PART OF THE AREA AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THAT RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING ZONES.
.LONG RANGE...NO CHG TO RECENT LONG TERM FCST TRENDS. SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRINING A COMBINATION OF RAIN SNOW AND WIND
THROUGH SUN THEN DRIER COLDER AIR MASS DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH
NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE MODEL FCSTS ARE MORE SIMILAR THIS MORNING
THAN THEY WERE TUE MORNING.
BY EARLY FRI... THE SYSTEM CROSSING THROUGH 45N 170W TODAY WILL
BE AFFTECTING MUCH OF THE SE AK PANHANDLE. GFS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE EVOLVING DYNAMICS WITH LOW CENTERS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THE ULTIMATE AFFECT ON FRI WILL BE A SFC
LOW...APPROX 975 MB... MOVING INLAND NORTH OF SITKA. JETSTREAM
DYNAMICS AND WSW FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE TOPOGRAPHY WILL MAKE
FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT FRI ALONG A NEG TILTED FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH DOWN THE COAST. STG WINDS AND HI SEAS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ZONES AS WELL. 850MB TEMPS
SUPPORT SNOWY PRECIP FRI ALL THE WAY TO A SITKA-PETERSBURG LINE
AND MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF THERE.
RESIDUAL TROUGHING PERSISTS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE TRAILING
OCCLUDED LOW IS FCST TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS GRAHAM ISLAND SOUTH
OF DIXON ENTRANCE AND INTO BC. THIS EVENT WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STIFF WIND AND PRECIP PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
ZONES. GENERALLY UNSETTLED WET WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
PERSIST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. BY MON THE
JETSTREAM SAGS FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO 50N AND A VERY COLD 1045
MB SFC HIGH DOMINATES INTERIOR AK. I BELIEVE THE MODELS ADVANCE
THE HIGH CENTER TOO FAR EAST TOO QUICKLY TUE-WED. IF IT STAYS
LONGER OVER ERN AK AND THE YUKON AS I SUSPECT THEN A NEW DOSE OF
COLD DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. TA
.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY FOR TODAY AKZ019
SNOW ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AKZ023>024-026>028
WINTER STORM WATCH TOMORROW AKZ017-019>022-025-029
WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW AKZ023-024-026>029
MARINE...SCA PKZ011>013-021-022-031>033-035-036-041>043-051>0537 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
NWS WFO Yakutat (PAYA) measured 10.2 inches of new snowfall from 1500 AKST 1/3 to 0300 AKST 1/4 during this event. An additional 3.8 inches fell after 0300 AKST 1/4 until the next midnight.
Hyder CO-OP Observer 0734 AKST on Friday, 1/5: 24 hour new snowfall measured 14.0 inches.
At 2030 AKST, Thursday 1/4, Haines had 5.0 measured since morning, with it currently snowing 1 inch/hour. At 1217 AKST 1/5, a trained spotter had measured 26.0 inches for 24 hours. Another spotter in Haines had 15.0 inches for the same time.
A trained spotter at Gustavus had 6.5 inches new snow in 24 hours ending 0800 AKST 1/5. Estimated that up to one foot had fallen up the Bay and that the spotter's measurement was for the snowfall overnight.
A trained spotter in Tenakee Springs measued 15.0 inches in 24 hours ending at 1217 PM 1/5.
Our trained spotter in Pelican measured 7 inches new snow for 24 hours ending 0800 1/5. All analyses and radar indicates that this snow fell in the last 12 hours (overnight).
A trained spotter had 11.5 inches of new snow from 1600 AKST 1/4 to 0600 AKST 1/5. An NWS employee had 9.5 inches from 0800 AKST 1/4 to 1100 AKST 1/5. A CO-OP observer near Juneau had 9.8 inches overnight. The Juneau NWS Forecast Office only had 5.0 inches 1500 AKST 1/4 to 1215 AKST 1/5.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 10552, 10559, 10553, 10555, 10556, 10557, 10558.