Hail in Wisconsin, September 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT FRI SEP 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST EMPHASIS ON PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT AND
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SRN WI THIS EVE. SFC CDFNT EXTENDS FM
VCNTY OF KGRB TO KLSE AT 20Z.  MAY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...HWVR EXPC WIND SHIFT TO SWEEP SWD ACRS LAKE MI/ERN AREAS
THIS EVE WITH WESTERN AREAS LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND.  0 TO 6 KM BULK
SHEAR MINIMAL BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCRG.  TEMPS NEAR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.  MLCAPE
1000 TO 1500 JOULES WITH CIN STILL LOWER THAN -50.  NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS CRUCIAL TO STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY TIES
INTO WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE TROF OVR
SERN MN...AS DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  IN ADDITION...PERIOD
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 3H
JET FOCUSES ON EAST CENTRAL WI THIS EVE.  HENCE BEST POPS THIS EVE
CLOSEST TO LOW LEVEL FORCING.  IN ADDITION...BOTH GFS AND NAM-WRF
SHOW AREA OF 305 THETA ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW CONDENSATION PRES
DEFICITS THIS EVE.  HENCE WL RANGE FM HIGH SCT POPS IN SOUTH TO OCNL
IN NE.

COLD AIR FLOWING ACRS LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTS IN DELTA-T OF 15 DEGREES
ON SAT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 800 JOULES...WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING TO OVER 5K FEET.  HENCE WL CONT THREAT OF LAKE
INDUCED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR SAT.  LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE ELY SAT EVE WITH DRIER AIR GETTING ENTRAINED INTO
LOWER LEVELS...SO PULLED OUT POPS MOST AREAS SAT NGT AND SUN.

QUESTIONS FROM LATER PERIODS OF SHORT TERM CARRY OVER INTO FIRST
PART OF EXTENDED FORECAST.  UNCERTAINTY FOCUSES ON PERSISTENCE OF
GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM TO SHOW AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER
CNTRL/NRN MS VLY SUN NGT/MON TIME FRAME WHILE UPSTREAM RIDGING OVR
EASTERN U.S. WEAKENS AND PUSHES EASTWARD.  HOWEVER...SNAG IN THIS
SCENARIO REMAINS PROGRESSION OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE FLORENCE.
LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK CARRIES FLORENCE ON MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WHICH WOULD SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF RIDGING AND HENCE RETARD/AFFECT
AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVE TROF IN BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR THIS AREA.
GFS HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...HWVR ALOT OF VARIABILITY SHOWING UP IN 500H ENSEMBLES.
ENSEMBLES CAN NOT RESOLVE HOW FAR NORTH CUT OFF LOW WL DRIFT.
ENSEMBLES MORE CONFIDENT ON AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
LATE IN WEEK. DGEX CONTS TO SLOW SHORT WAVE TROF BUT DELAYS ARRIVAL
OF PRECIP UNTIL MON NGT/TUE...WHILE OTHER EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INCLUDING ECMWF REINFORCES RIDGING AND DRY AIR INTRUSION FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

HENCE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP THREAT FOR SUN NGT INTO TUE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT...HWVR SOME ENCOURAGEMENT WITH NEW 12Z GFS
RUN.  GUIDANCE BACKING OFF ON SHORT WAVE TROFFING ACRS UPR MIDWEST
WITH MORE EMPHASIS FARTHER SOUTH WITH FLORENCE SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY TRACK THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE.  THIS TREND CONSISTENT WITH
DRIER ECMWF.  IF TREND CONTINUES TNGT...CAN SEE REMOVING POPS FOR
ALL/PORTIONS OF SUN NGT INTO MON NGT PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW WL CONT
SML POPS BUT DROP THUNDER THREAT MON NGT AS INSTABILITY MINIMAL TO
NON EXISTENT. HWVR WL ADD LOW POPS FOR FRI INTO FRI NGT AS MORE
AGREEMENT IN EXTENDED GUIDANCE.

500H ANOMOLIES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL FOR FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK REPLACE BY AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROF AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 8 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-090945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ643>646-665-090945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MOST LIKELY TONIGHT AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

COLLAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
356 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             OCONOMOWOC              43.10N 88.50W
09/08/2006  M0.50 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED 0.5 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

&&

WOOD