Hail in Wisconsin, May 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
339 AM TUE MAY 16 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONCERNS ON CHANCES
OF PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE MADE IN PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. FOLLOWED NAM PER NCEP LEAD...AND FIRST MID. RADAR SHOWING
SCATTERED LIGHT PCPN MOVING SOUTH THROUGH AREA...IN AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION...FUELED BY SHEARED VORT MOVING THROUGH ON BACKSIDE OF
UPPER LOW IN OHIO. MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS END...DROP SOUTH OF AREA BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONTINUE TO HAVE WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT ANY
CLEARING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. NAM HINTS AT SOME
LESSENING OF CLOUDS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH AFTER 18Z.
QUIET EVENING TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/CLIPPER SYSTEM RACING
OUT OF CANADA.

LLVL TEMPS WARM SOME 3 DEGREES WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS
THIS PERIOD. BUMPED TEMPS UP LAKESHORE COUNTIES ON WED...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THRU SATURDAY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF VORT MAXES THRU THE CWA
THRU FRIDAY WITH STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AIDING IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A STRONG 31 UNIT VORT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS DRIER AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN A BIT QUICKER AND A
WEAKER VORT A BIT FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE VORT APPEARS TOO STRONG
WILL SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL AND KEEP SATURDAY DRY AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN KEEPING SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
TE/KURIMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
945 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-171100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
945 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DUE TO THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SOME RIVERS ARE ABOVE
BANKFULL. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE USED NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS AND
DITCHES DUE TO FAST FLOWING WATER. THE RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...
BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-171100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
945 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

KIECKBUSCH/KALLAS
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY