Debris Flow in Washington, January 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
540 PM PST THU JAN 5 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE STALLING NEARBY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WET AND MILD PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A COOLER
AIRMASS SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THOUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPDATE TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS EVENING IS TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT
ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON CONTINUE TO INCH EASTWARD. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST
CASCADES...OKANOGAN VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...PRECIP CHANCES TO THE EAST WERE INCREASED FOR LATER IN
THE EVENING. THIS WAS MAINLY DONE FOR NORTHERN TIER
ZONES...SPOKANE/CDA AREA AND SHOSHONE COUNTY IN IDAHO. THE PALOUSE
AND OTHER SOUTHEAST ZONES WERE LEFT AS IS SINCE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER LEVELS DRY IN THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH...THIS WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE RATHER HIGH
AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THEY WILL DROP A BIT AS
THINGS COOL OFF. I TRIED TO WORD THIS IN THE FORECAST WHERE
POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SUCH THAT ONLY A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY AND MOST OF THAT WILL BE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO POPS...CLOUD COVER ALSO WAS INCREASED TO
ACCOUNT FOR OVERCAST SKIES. /LERICOS

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONTAL BAND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT WHICH
WILL SPREAD AREAS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...LOWER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST CASCADES AND NORTHERN TIER
OF WASHINGTON WHERE RAIN AND SNOW ARE HEAVIEST. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ALSO WILL REMAIN A THREAT IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT.
RAIN WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS BECOMING MORE PREDOMINATE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. /LERICOS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        35  41  35  39  32  39 /  50  70  40  30  50  40
COEUR DALENE  34  40  34  40  34  40 /  50  70  50  40  50  40
PULLMAN        35  46  36  39  34  39 /  10  40  50  50  50  40
LEWISTON       38  54  38  46  37  46 /  10  40  40  40  50  40
COLVILLE       35  37  33  37  31  37 /  90  80  60  20  50  60
SANDPOINT      33  39  33  37  31  37 /  90  80  70  50  50  60
KELLOGG        33  40  34  38  31  38 /  40  80  80  60  60  60
MOSES LAKE     33  40  34  40  31  40 /  70  50  30  20  40  20
WENATCHEE      33  37  33  37  31  37 / 100  70  30  20  40  30
OMAK           34  39  32  36  29  36 / 100  70  30  20  50  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&