Heat in Virginia, July 17, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1104 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

SFC HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SFC RIDGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC ARE COMBINING WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER A
BROAD AREA FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 15Z ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR LARGE AREA
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS REASONABLE.

NO UPDATES PLANNED TO CURRENT ZONE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE HEAT. AS PREVIOUS FCSTR
MENTIONED...THE FLOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LGT WITH HIGH PRES JUST
TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION WITH ANY FLOW EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A NW
TO N TRAJECTORY...ANY DOWNSLOPE EFFECT SHOULD BE MINOR WHICH HELPS
KEEP DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S INSTEAD OF MIXING OUT DUE TO
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE. MAX TEMPS AROUND 100 ARE LIKELY IN THE DC/BALT
METROS AS WELL AS FREDERICK MD AND FREDERICKSBURG VA. COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S (TYPICAL DPTS FOR THIS TIME OF YR) WE
SHOULD NEAR 105 DEG MAX HEAT INDEX AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WHICH IS OUR
CRITERIA FOR HEAT INDEX. SINCE IT IS STILL A MORE SENSITIVE TIME OF
YR FOR HEAT RELATED INJURIES ESPECIALLY IN THE CITIES...FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT TO EXPAND THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED ADVISORY...NOW TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE BALT/DC METRO AREAS PLUS CENTRAL MD TO HAGERSTOWN AND
NORTHERN VA DOWN TO FREDERICKSBURG. HAVE LEFT OUT THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH AND LOWER SRN MD SINCE THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO MEET CRITERIA
DUE TO TOPO AND SLIGHT MODERATION FROM TIDAL WATERS, RESPECTIVELY.
WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR 100-105 DEG HEAT INDEX IN OTHER AREAS AWAY
FROM THE HIGH TRRN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TNGT. MIN TEMPS
TNGT REFLECT A STRONG URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

IN SUMMARY...IT/LL FEEL SUMMERY.

TUE LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM STRETCH...WITH
TEMPS ABOVE 95 DEG F...MAYBE PUSHING 100 DEG F IN A FEW SPOTS.
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEG F WILL MAKE IT FEEL 100 TO 105 DEG F.
SUNSHINE...FILTERED THROUGH A MILKY COATING OF HAZE...WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
CLOUDS BUILDING UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MAY SERVE AS A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST SHEAR WOULD RESIDE.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT...AND COULD SEE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TO OVERCOME SOME
INHIBITION FIRST. ANYWAY...HAVE INTRODUCED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS A LOT OF THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR
LOWER SLGT CHC POPS TOWARD THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AREA.

FRONT TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TUE NGT INTO
WED MORNING. THE TAIL PROBABLY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST CWA
BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HAVE LOW POPS
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL SHEN
VALLEY...WITH NO WX ELSEWHERE. IF FRONT DOES PUSH SOUTH...LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE. MAX T SHOULD GET KNOCKED DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 90S FOR WED.

MADE FEW CHANGES THU AND BEYOND. IT MAKES SENSE FOR TEMPS TO HEAT
BACK UP TOWARD 95 THU AND FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MAY
BRING TSRA FRI/FRI NGT...BEFORE TEMPS GET NUDGED DOWN A BIT FOR THE
WEEKEND (BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO).

AVIATION...

NO CONCERNS IN THE AVIATION DEPT.

MARINE...

NO CONCERNS IN THE MARINE DEPT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR DCZ001 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR VAZ041-042-052>057 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FOR WVZ053 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1113 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-
025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ048>055-181045-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
1113 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR 105 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF
WASHINGTON DC. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN REGIONS...AS HOT...HUMID
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SMITH