Winter Weather in Virginia, February 22, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST WED FEB 22 2006

.SHORT TERM /TDA-TNGT/...

AGONIZED OVR WHAT TO DO REGARDING TDAS SNOW AND IF ANY ADVSRIES
WERE NEEDED. CLDS ARE LOWERING OVR THE CWA ATTM W/ SLTLY HIGHER RDR
REFLECTIVITIES APPEARING...AND LGT RA ON OBS IN WRN W.V. TEMPS IN
OUR CWA ARE MARGINAL FOR SN...BUT DWPTS STILL RLTVLY LOW SO SOME
LOWERING OF THE TEMP WL OCCUR AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS.

BLV BULK OF PCPN WL OCCUR DURG MRNG HRS. HV DECIDED TO GO W/ AN
ADVSRY FOR 1-2 ONLY IN HIGHLAND/PENDLETON. AM LVG OUT COUNTIES TO
THE E - AUGUSTA/ROCKINGHAM...BECAUSE OF BIG ELEVATION DIFF FM THE
COUNTIES TO THE W. 1-2 IS ABSOLUTE MIN CRITERIA (FOR OUR OFFICE)
FOR AN ADVSRY. BOTH RNK AND RLX HV SLTLY HIGHER CRITERIA SO IT LOOKS
LK THESE WL BE THE ONLY COUNTIES W/ AN ADVSRY. STILL...BLV THE SNOW
WL BE FAIRLY WET..AND SHOULD BE ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT TO TRAVEL.

GOING AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LESS. BLV 1) AS YOU MV
FURTHER N PCPN WL BE LESS...AND 2) ATMOSPHERE WARM ENOUGH THAT SN WL
MIX W/ RAIN.

BLV PCPN WL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AS 160 KT JET WL SPEED THE SHRT WV
E. JET RMNS OVRHD TNGT...AND W/ IT A FAIR AMT OF HIGHER CLDS.

FOR TEMPS TDA AM STAYING UNDER GUIDNC - W/ XTNSV CLD CVR XPCTG LTL
IN THE WAY OF TEMP RISE - 35-40 MOST OF THE CWA. TGNT 25-30 FM MTNS
W...30-35 E.

WOODY

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MRNG LOW PRES MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 11Z AT CHO AND SPREADING TO THE NE
BETWEEN 11 AND 16Z. AFTER 11Z CHC OF RASN REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS STAYING BLO SCA VALUES. SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY DURG MRNG HRS
W/ RASN.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU-WED)

HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SAT. THEN ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THRU THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR. HIGHS MON-WED ONLY IN THE 20S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS.

ROSA

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VAZ021 FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ054 FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
519 AM EST WED FEB 22 2006

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-
025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ048>055-231030-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
519 AM EST WED FEB 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGHLAND COUNTY VIRGINIA AND
PENDLETON COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS
MORNING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
502 AM EST WED FEB 22 2006

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>053-055-221615-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-
CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
HARDY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...CUMBERLAND...HAGERSTOWN...
FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...
HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...
LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...BAYARD...
PETERSBURG...KEYSER...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
502 AM EST WED FEB 22 2006

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST DURING
THE MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE. AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH. BY LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE FAR ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER ACCUMULATION.
SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE WASHINGTON DC AND
BALTIMORE METRO AREAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.