Damaging Wind in Virginia, August 28, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
323 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WV WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OVR NW VA E WV AND W MD. MAY EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE
UNSTABLE AIR AS IT MOVES TO THE NE. YESTERDAY/S SHEAR IS
GONE...LEAVING JUST WEAK SHEAR WITH MODERATE INSTAB AND WEAK
FORCING... SO EXPECT SCT TSRA WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
STORM.

LOW MOVES A FRONT THROUGH HERE ON TUESDAY... POSSIBLY WITH A
WEAK LOW RIDING ALONG IT. FOR NOW WILL HAVE LOW END LIKELY POPS...
AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY WITH THAT PASSING THRU THE REGION.

WITH N TO NW WINDS KICKING IN TODAY...TIDAL ANOMALIES AND COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT ARE BOTH LESSENING. WILL CANCEL THE CFW FOR NOW AND
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THRU THE WEEK WITH BRIEF RETURN TO S FLOW
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF ERNESTO LATER THIS WEEK.

HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AGAIN WITH DEWPOINTS
ABOUT WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN. SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

GFS AND NMM WRF AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS POSITION A COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL VA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE THE FRONT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH
TO THE VA/NC BORDER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SINCE THE FRONT IS RUNNING INTO
A SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE IT WILL LACK DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES NEAR
2.0 INCHES. FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN NC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA AND LOWER SOUTHERN MD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND WEAK CAA AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY THE
PATH OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERNESTO. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST FROM A POSITION NEAR THE SC COAST AT
00Z FRIDAY TO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE NORTHERN NC/SOUTHEASTERN VA
COAST BY 00Z MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MOIST...OVERRUNNING...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM. ALSO CONTINUED WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. WEAK COLD FRONT COULD CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...AND INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...

WITH LACK OF TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS... WILL CARRY A VCTS FOR THE
MOST PRONE TIMES... THEN UPDATE AS NEEDED. EXPECT MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT...IFR AT MRB WITH BETTER CHANCE OF RAINFALL. WILL KEEP ALL
CIGS MVFR OR BETTER FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT...
WILL HAVE 15KT OR LESS IN ALL MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC...AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND TROPICAL SYSTEM ERNESTO WHICH COULD NEAR THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...STRONG
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...STRONG
MARINE...STRONG/SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
348 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-
025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ048>055-291000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
348 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERNESTO IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ERNESTO MAY MOVE UP THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THIS TRACK COULD
PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE COASTAL
FLOODING. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE TRACK OF ERNESTO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SMITH