Damaging Winds in Utah, July 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
840 PM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS DEPICT 1 TO 1.2 INCH VALUES COVERING THE
VALLEYS OF UTAH. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICTS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
EAST OF THE 4-CORNERS WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA IS DRAWING AND SQUEEZING THE MOISTURE
PLUME OVER UTAH. YESTERDAYS AND THIS MORNINGS UPPER LOW WEATHER
MAKER HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING BUT BROUGHT SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
ASSOCIATED WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS AND HEATING OF THE DAY. SINCE ITS
EXIT SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH. WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH CONTINUES TO
SPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THIS REGION. HEAVIEST AND MOST
ORGANIZED RAIN HAS BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS NEAR HATCH
AND OVER WESTERN IRON AND BEAVER COUNTIES. THESE STORMS CONTINUE
NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF MODENA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 2 INCHES THIS REGION...CALLED
DISPATCH BUT NO REPORTS OF PROBLEMS YET. TROUGH LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS EVENING HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STRONG
CELLS BROUGHT GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AT WENDOVER PAST HOUR.

SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND 12Z/00Z NAM-WRF BRING THE NEVADA COMPLEX
ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH AND GSL TONIGHT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE PLUME OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
UTAH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GET ENHANCED LATER TONIGHT AS WAVES IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ARRIVES FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST UTAH SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS MUCH OF THIS FORCING IS FROM TERRAIN. THE
NORTHWEST COMPLEX WILL ALSO WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS EVENING BUT WITH
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES TO THE GREAT SALT
LAKE AND PARTS OF THE WASATCH FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT IN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES ON THURSDAY. WAVES MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES AND BRING CLOUD COVER WHILE
CONTINUING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH PERSISTS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN NORTHERN UTAH AS
WELL. CONVECTION SUPPRESSED AFTER DEPARTING OF THE EARLY MORNING
WAVE...BUT HEATING OF THE DAY WILL BEGIN FIRING CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN FAVORED MOUNTAINS. DYNAMICS ARRIVING WITH A LATE DAY AND
EVENING WAVE WILL SUPPORT SPREADING ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST UTAH INCLUDING THE VALLEYS/WASATCH FRONT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE TAKING
OVER IN THE NORTH AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH NAM-WRF AND GFS SUPPORT
THIS SCENARIO FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WHICH
WILL BRING WARMING. THIS PATTERN WOULD DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER
MUCH OF UTAH BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN
CONVECTION.

UPDATED EARLIER FOR CONVECTION TRENDS. WILL LOOK AT UPDATES FOR
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A RETURN TO DRAINAGE 03-04Z. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE DESERTS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL 04-06Z. THESE
STORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME BUT OUTFLOW EFFECTS...SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

TARDY