Damaging Wind in Utah, July 17, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
329 PM MDT MON JUL 17 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNAL WARMING AND GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT: KGJT 17/12Z SOUNDING HELD 0.80 PW THIS MORNING AND REPORTS
FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS INDICATED THAT MANY STORMS WERE PRODUCING
WETTING RAIN. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...EXPECT DIURNAL COOLING TO BRING
ABOUT END OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS
HINT AT WEAK INVERTED TROF MOVING NORTHWEST...NORTH THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HELD
ONTO SOME LOW POPS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MODELS SHOW SLOW MOISTENING TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 0.9 BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH
SLIPS JUST A BIT EASTWARD. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED
POP CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE INDICATED IN MODEL DATA PROGGED TO IMPACT THE
AREA.

INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW COOLING TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY AND AMPLIFIES STRONGLY ALONG
THE WEST COAST. PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECASTS FOR THESE PERIODS HAVE
SHOWN A DRYING TREND. BUT WITH THE STRONG AMPLIFICATION OF THE WEST
COAST RIDGE...AN OPEN WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EAST/LEE SIDE
OF THE RIDGE DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. THE EC HAS LED
THE WAY WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE GFS HAS FOLLOWED. THOUGH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL...MODEL AGREEMENT PUSHES THIS FORECAST FOR
HIGHER POPS BOTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK TROFINESS
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.   RAMEY

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

&&

NL/JOE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
421 AM MDT MON JUL 17 2006

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-181030-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
421 AM MDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

CJC