Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, May 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 6 2006

.AVIATION...
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS OF
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE E/SE AND WILL MOVE INTO
THE KAUS TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID UNTIL 02Z....WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER 05Z MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THRU
15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A GENERAL SE DIRECTION. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME ONCE
AGAIN REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT MAY 6 2006)

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ATTM DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE PASSING
OF A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AREAS OF CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS AND MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SEVERE TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS ONCE AGAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SVR TSTM WATCH 301
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA WILL
EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TSTMS THIS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
IMPULSE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. DURING THIS TIME FRAME THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE TSTMS AND FLOODING WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST. BASED ON THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY BRING AN END TO THE EXTENDED RAINFALL EVENT.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY
ALSO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AS STORMS REDEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT.