Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, May 30 to 31, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
327 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

.SHORT TERM...
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS PRIMED FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES EXIST OVER THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED INFLOW OF MOIST AIR ON SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER SW KANSAS INTO THE NW TX PANHANDLE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT WAS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS INTO WESTERN OK AND DIFFUSE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE MOVING BACK
WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO INTO THE SW
PANHANDLE...AND A COUPLE OF CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN HALE
COUNTY NORTH OF PLAINVIEW AS OF 3 PM. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WHERE STRONGER FORCING AND
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES EXIST. STORMS FARTHER SOUTH ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND PERHAPS OVER THE
EAST NEAR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY
BUILD INTO MESOSCALE COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MOVE EAST
AND SOUTH THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
INITIALLY. FARTHER SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND
GIVEN MUCH WEAKER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL WINDS...MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY
AND PROPAGATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUST THREAT. IF CLOUD BASES CAN LOWER GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIR
ADVECTION...COULD SEE AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE NORTH
ALONG FRONT/BOUNDARIES IN LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH REMNANTS CLOUDS/CONVECTION WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST. ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND FRONT/OUTFLOW LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. COOLER BEHIND
FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM FEATURES COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EARLY...BEFORE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
INITIAL OUTFLOW/FRONTAL SURGE WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...BUT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER REINFORCING
SURGE PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SECONDARY SURGE WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF PREVIOUS AND
ONGOING CONVECTION. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NORTHERNLY WINDS AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE
TRIMMING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA
THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM) WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM
MOVING FURTHER INTO THE CWA...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL WARM CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  80  59  88 /  50  40  30  20
TULIA         60  81  59  87 /  50  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     61  82  61  85 /  50  40  30  20
LEVELLAND     63  85  64  87 /  40  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       64  84  61  84 /  40  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    63  86  64  86 /  50  40  30  20
CHILDRESS     65  84  63  84 /  50  30  30  20
SPUR          65  86  62  88 /  50  40  30  20
ASPERMONT     66  88  65  89 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

06/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

TXZ021>044-311645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1136 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT AMPLE MOISTURE BACK INTO MOST OF WEST TEXAS...
WITH THE DRYLINE LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THESE STORMS
SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR TO ROTATE AND
BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS....BUT LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.