Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, July 17, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
258 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...MORE NORMAL LIKE JULY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AND MAY BE
EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXTEND OF MIXING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

LAST NIGHTS LOW AT DFW - 83 DEGREES - TIED TO OLD HIGHEST MINIMUM
RECORD FOR THE DAY SET BACK IN 1956.  TONIGHTS HIGHEST MINIMUM
RECORD IS 81 DEGREES SET IN 1980...AND THIS MAY FALL TONIGHT.

THE EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTERN AND SET UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOWER PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUCH
THAT DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN BACK TO MID-JULY
NORMALS (DFW 96/75 AND ACT 97/75)...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTS IN
THE RURAL AREAS.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT FORMING OVER THE
STATE. ALSO A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER ON
SUNDAY AND LINGER INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION RETURNS TO PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS...THUS HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH AND EASTERN
AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON  THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT
VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT...BUT IT THE BEST I/VE SEEN SINCE THE LAST
EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF EARLIER THIS MONTH.

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW 35
PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 15 MPH
KEEPING THE DAILY FIRE DANGER IN CHECK.  NIGHTTIME HUMIDITY RECOVERY
WILL BE IN THE 65 -85 PERCENT RANGE...PROVIDING LIMITED BENEFIT TO
FUEL MOISTURE.

NORTH TEXAS VEGETATION REMAINS STRESS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20...AND
IN SPOTS MISSED BY PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS (LIKE MY YARD)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 104  84 104  82 /  10  10   0  10
WACO, TX             103  77 102  77 /  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX            103  78 101  79 /  20  20   0  10
DENTON, TX           106  81 104  80 /  10  10   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX         103  78 103  81 /  20  10   0  10
DALLAS, TX           103  84 104  82 /  10  10   0  10
TERRELL, TX          104  80 103  80 /  20  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX        102  77 101  77 /  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX           100  75 100  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094-TXZ095-
TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ121-
TXZ122-TXZ123-TXZ133-TXZ134.

&&

26/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
255 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
255 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT...EAST OF A GAINESVILLE...FORT
WORTH...CLEBURNE LINE...AND NORTH OF A CLEBURNE...ENNIS...CANTON
LINE. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE
RANGE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE 78
TO 82 DEGREE RANGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING... MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

MOREOVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. FINALLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
BOWIE...DENTON...GREENVILLE...CENTERVILLE LINE. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE EVENING EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR.

26

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
259 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

TXZ091-100>102-115>117-129>132-135-141>148-156>162-174-175-180300-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COMANCHE-CORYELL-EASTLAND-ERATH-FALLS-FREESTONE-
HAMILTON-HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-JACK-LAMPASAS-LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-
MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-PARKER-ROBERTSON-SOMERVELL-
STEPHENS-WISE-YOUNG-
259 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEK...

HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 98 AND 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED
DURING THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE JULY HEAT...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF...AS VALUES DROP ONLY IN THE UPPER
70S AT MOST URBAN LOCATIONS AND INTO THE MID 70S IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER RURAL AREAS.

PERSONS INVOLVED IN VIGOROUS...PHYSICAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE URGED
TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...OR OTHER NON-
ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES. WEAR LOOSE FITTING AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING.
BE SURE TO CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...OR THOSE WITH HEALTH RISK
CONDITIONS...AS THEY ARE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT EXHAUSTION.
YOUNG CHILDREN OR PETS SHOULD NEVER REMAIN IN AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE
WITH NO VENTILATION OR AIR CONDITIONING...EVEN FOR THE SHORTEST
AMOUNT OF TIME...AS TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY RISE TO LIFE THREATENING
LEVELS...EVEN IF WINDOWS ARE PARTIALLY OPENED.