Hail in South Carolina, May 21, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1103 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRAVERSING TENNESSEE...WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THIS COMPLEX A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
GEORGIA AND OCONEE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE LATER TODAY. OLD FRONTAL
ZONE REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WILL LIKELY SINK ONLY A LITTLE SOUTH...IF AT ALL.
THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM APPEAR TO BE RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THIS FRONT...AND DRIVEN BY PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN AT LEAST
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES IFFIER TO THE NORTH...WHERE SOME DRIER AIR AND MORE WEST
TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

FOR THE UPDATE...WE WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES TO 40% FOR THE
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN-MOST UPSTATE AREAS. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30% FOR THE REST OF
THE UPSTATE...INCLUDE MORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND
ALSO RAISE TO LOW CHANCE FOR POLK AND RUTHERFORD COUNTIES. NO
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST MAXIMA...WHICH SEEM IN LINE WITH LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 320 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOPS REMAIN RATHER COOL UPSTREAM WITH ERN TENN MCS AND THE TREND ON
REFLECTIVITIES HAS BEEN TO BECOME MORE ROBUST HEADING INTO NORTH
GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN HAS REALLY WORKED OVER THE
AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN CWFA SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF STORMS
THIS FAR EAST LOOKS QUESTIONABLE. ANYWAY...PRETTY GOOD BET THE
STRATIFORM PCPN ACRS THE UPSTATE WILL BE GONE BY 6 AM AND WILL
MAINTAIN JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACRS THE FAR SW THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST/SEWARD MOVEMENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY.

LLVL FLOW WILL BE MORE TRUE DOWNSLOPE TODAY...AND SHOULD
SUBSTANTIALLY CUT DOWN ON TSTM CVRG...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS
AND FURTHER AWAY FROM INSTABILITY AXIS OFF TO OUR SOUTH. GENERALLY
UPPER LVL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO YSTDY...WITH ACCOMPANYING
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DRIER SUBCLOUD LAYER REALLY CUTS
INTO INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...GIVE SHEAR PROFILES A FEW SVR
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO. CWFA WILL
COME MORE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF COOLER SFC RIDGING ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN ABOUT A TWO CATEGORY COOLING OF MAX TEMPS VERSUS
SUNDAY. GENERALLY SHOTGUNNING CHC POPS FOR TSTMS ON MONDAY
AS ONE LAST IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE STABLE ON TUESDAY THANKS TO A MORE PRONOUNCED
NE LLVL FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LINGERING OFF TO OUR NORTH.
ETAKIT SNDGS INDICATE A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL CAP...LIKELY PRECLUDING
ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE PATTERN
STARTS TO FLATTEN SOME...MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT IMPULSE COULD MAKE
IT INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS...SO WILL HANG ONTO JUST A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POP. SHARP LOOKING IMPULSE SLATED TO EFFECT THE CWFA THURSDAY
AND SOLID CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE STARTING FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
DEVELOPING EASTERN U.S. RIDGING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
STRATIFORM RAIN AREA DOWNSHEAR OF THE DECAYING MCS OVER NE GA WILL
KEEP RAIN IN AT KAND AND PERHAPS KGSP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF FOG AT KAVL WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGH DWPTS SHOULD KEEP VSBYS IN THE 1-2SM RANGE MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY FOG IS A SOMEWHAT TOUGHER CALL AS
THERE WL BE A LITTLE MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THAT KCLT AND
KAND WL SEE INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG...WHICH IS WHAT I HAVE IN THE
TAFS. WITH HIGH CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND AT LEAST A
LITTLE MIXING...I DON/T THINK THEIR VSBYS WILL BOTTOM OUT. WINDS WL
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AGAIN BY LATE SUN MORNING ACROSS THE
UPSTATE. KCLT SHOULD SEE A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOME WESTERLY AS A
WEAK FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AIRPORT. THIS WILL BE A
TOUGH CALL HOWEVER AS TO WHEN WINDS TURN AROUND. I THINK THE MOS MAY
BE A LITTLE FAST. ABOUT THE ONLY TAF SITES THAT MIGHT SEE THUNDER
TODAY ARE KAVL AND KAND WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY. HAVE /CB/ GROUPS IN AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
632 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-221045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
632 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERN UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             4 NE BLACKSBURG         35.16N 81.47W
05/20/2006  E2.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           SC   PUBLIC

            2 INCH HAIL FELL JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
            BORDER...AND NORTHEAST OF BLACKSBURG.

&&

44

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