Damaging Wind in South Carolina, May 20, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
315 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF CUMULUS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES ALONG THE REMAINS OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FORMED FROM MORNING CONVECTION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES HAVE BROKEN THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS.
SAVANNAH HAS JUST NOW TIED THE RECORD HIGH TEMP FOR THIS DATE OF 94
SET IN 1902. SC COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING NORTH CHARLESTON...ARE
LOCALLY QUITE COOLER DUE TO SEABREEZE EFFECTS EVIDENT BY THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT REPORTING SITES.

PNAM SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ATTEMPTING TO MAKE
ANOTHER SOUTHWARD RUN OVERNIGHT...BUT STALLING JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA. SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE SC ZONES IN DAY ONE
SLIGHT RISK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY QUITE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. IN
ADDITION...THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING. AT THIS POINT...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA. RUC IS SHOWING SUFFICIENTLY HIGH CAPES AND
LOW LI VALUES TO ENCOURAGE A STRAY SHOWER TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
BE MUCH TRICKIER.

WITH MEANDERING BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY...TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE. PNAM SHOWS RAINFALL AFFECTING THE TRI COUNTY AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS SHOWS ONLY A LITTLE SHOWER INTRUSION DURING
THE EVENING AND NOTHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITHOUT TOO MUCH
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN BETWEEN TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WILL ASSUME THAT A SIMILAR SITUATION COULD SET UP ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TO SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON ARE IN THE UPPER 90S
FOR MAY 21...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN TOMORROW.
&&

.EXTENDED /MON THROUGH SAT/...DEEP TROF THAT HAS BEEN OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEK. AS HEIGHTS RISE...SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME PUSHING PUSHING CLEANLY THROUGH THE FA...SO THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS EACH DAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE THE DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK...BUT OUR OLD FRIEND THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THE GENERAL RULE...EXCEPT COOLER AT
THE BEACHES.
&&

.MARINE...HAVE NOT HAD ANY RECENT SIGNIFICANT GUSTS REPORTED AT
FOLLY BEACH...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...OR PILOT BOATS. THUS WILL TAKE
DOWN THE SCA FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR. QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NO HIGHLITES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS WINDS WILL BE
15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS
WEAK FRONTS SLIDE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...SEABREEZE EFFECTS ALREADY NOTICEABLE AT KCHS...WHERE
WINDS BECAME SOUTHERLY AROUND 18Z. HAVE AMENDED THE TAF TO ACCOUNT
FOR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED AT
KSAV...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SINCE KSAV WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 5 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT...HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
FOR BOTH TAF SITES.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GEORGIA COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE RHS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RED FLAGS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...HENCE THE MIN RHS WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER...IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE. A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH MIN RH VALUES INCREASING. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS FORESEEN...ALTHOUGH AS ALWAYS SOME STRONG
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

WMS/ALSHEIMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-211200-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
400 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR COASTAL AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING..AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
541 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

SCZ045-202300-
BERKELEY-
541 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH 645 PM
EDT...

AT 541 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF
JUDGE TOWN TO 6 MILES WEST OF WILSONS LANDING TO 31 MILES WEST OF
PRIOLEAU...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KINGSTREE TO 17 MILES SOUTH OF MANNING TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BROOKDALE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT LAKE MOULTRIE FROM 615 THROUGH 700 PM EDT.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS TO BOATERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE.
YOUR BEST COURSE OF ACTION DURING A THUNDERSTORM IS TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE OPEN LAKE WATERS...STAY BELOW
DECK...AND IF POSSIBLE...AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
651 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

SCZ050-202345-
CHARLESTON-
651 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY FROM
715 TO 745 PM EDT...

AT 651 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
AWENDAW...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF MONCKS CORNER...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 50 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN
AND AROUND PINELAND...AWENDAW...MCCLELLANVILLE AND BUCK HALL THROUGH
715 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     MACBETH                 33.27N 79.97W
05/20/2006  E0 MPH           BERKELEY           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS AND DIME HAIL ON EAST SIDE
            OF LAKE MOULTRIE

0642 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CROSS               33.33N 80.18W
05/20/2006                   BERKELEY           SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON SHORTCUT ROAD OFF HIGHWAY 6.

&&

PAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW FAREWELL CORNER    33.18N 79.80W
05/20/2006                   BERKELEY           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN

&&

PAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
730 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BONNEAU                 33.31N 79.96W
05/20/2006                   BERKELEY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF OFF A MOBILE HOME NEAR GENERAL WASHINGTON BLVD

&&

PAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
740 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

SCZ045-210030-
BERKELEY-
740 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BERKELEY COUNTY THROUGH 830 PM
EDT...

AT 740 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER WILDER...OR ABOUT 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAINT STEPHEN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
WILDER...WADBOO...STONY LANDING...SIMPSON CROSSING...SAINT STEPHEN...
RUSSELLVILLE...OLD CORDESVILLE...MONCKS CORNER...MACBETH AND BONNEAU
THROUGH 830 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.