Hail and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, August 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HEAT INDICES ARE ALREADY AROUND 100 ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING...AS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA PREPARE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDICES REACHING 110 TO 112 DEGREES RIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY
INTO THE EVENING.

06Z MOS GUIDANCE AT ODDS OVER POPS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS GUIDANCE DOES
NOT PRODUCE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS...WHILE MET GUIDANCE INDICATES A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NAM PRECIP FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE FORCED ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITHIN A
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE SUMMERTIME ATMOSPHERE. CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WILL PROVIDE EXTRA TIME TO FURTHER HEAT AND
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT...WITH MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDING GIVING
CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOWER AND
MID LEVELS SHOULD PIN SEABREEZE TO THE COAST.

CURRENT CHANCE POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS SEEMS A
LITTLE HIGH FOR TODAY CONSIDERING THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL
INTACT AND THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS A BIT CAPPED. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE THIS MORNING...AS SEEN IN THE NEARLY
SPOTLESS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAY BRING POPS DOWN TO NO HIGHER
THAN 30 PERCENT...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE CATEGORY.
&&

.AVIATION...CUMULUS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO APPEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY FORM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF CB AFTER 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO INLAND
PROGRESSION OF SEABREEZE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO COASTAL FORECAST THIS MORNING
OTHER THAN INITIALIZING WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. SURFACE TROUGH
INLAND WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS.
&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141 FROM 11
     AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>051 FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO
     8 PM FRIDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-051000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL
JASPER-
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT. REFER TO THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT...HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 114 DEGREES TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM EDT. REFER TO
THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JRL

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