Heavy Rain in Puerto Rico, April 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 PM AST WED APR 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN STROKE
THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA AND MOST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS. ESTIMATES
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE FROM ONE TO
TWO INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF PUERTO RICO WHILE THE
NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY EL YUNQUE...RECEIVED MORE THAN FOUR INCHES
IN A THREE HOURS PERIOD.
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST REGION OF THE ISLAND.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT AS THE WIND TEND TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES DIGS DEEP INTO THE WEST CARIBBEAN DRAWING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTH AMERICA AND
SPREADING IT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST
THOUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
SUBSIDENCE FROM NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THE PRESENT
TIME BUT THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL EASTWARD ALLOWING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE ON THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTOM ACTIVITY THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS SO FAR DRIER AND EVEN PLEASANT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARE TO PREVIOUS WEEKEND WHERE WE SAW FLOODING CONDITIONS
OVER SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AND
SCATTERRED SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  83  74  83 /  60  70  40  40
STT  76  82  76  82 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
850 AM AST WED APR 5 2006

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-061000-
850 AM AST WED APR 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY PRODUCING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE GENERATION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE GENERATION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EACH OF THOSE DAYS. NO
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-061000-
850 AM AST WED APR 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND PRODUCE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE GENERATION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUT FLOODING. NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS MAY BE REQUIRED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

SNELL