Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, July 18, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE EXTREME HEAT IS COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN FROM THE NW. THE HEAT WARNING/ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE THIS EVENING.

IN GENERAL, CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ANY PCPN IS LOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY, AND ANY FORECAST SHORT WAVES
COULD BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. EVEN SO, I HAVE TO
MAKE THE BEST FCST I CAN, AND HERE IS MY REASONING.

TSTMS ARE DVLPG ALONG THE FRONT JUST NW OF THE FCST AREA AND A SVR
TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PHL NORTH AND WEST. NEW SVR TSTM
WATCHES COULD BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE AND THE TSTMS
THAT HAVE ALREADY FIRED COULD ALLOW MORE TSTMS TO DVLP ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE GFS
SHOWS A BULLS-EYE OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SEPA. CONVECTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD WITH THE FRONT SO I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HOW
WIDESPREAD THE CNVCTN WILL GET TNGT AND THINK THE GFS IS TOO WET.
EVEN SO, THE WRF/NAM HAS MISSED THE CURRENT PCPN IN NE PA AND
INSTEAD FOCUSES ON THE CNVCTN FROM WV WEAKENING AND JUST CLIPPING
THE NE MD AND NRN DE ZONES. FOR NOW, I WENT WITH GENERIC CHC POPS
DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS. ANY SHWRS/TSTMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TNGT COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WED MRNG.

ON WED...SOME OF THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MAKE THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
HOWEVER, FARTHER SOUTH, SOME OF THE HUMIDITY WILL LINGER AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. SINCE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS, ANY FETCH FROM THESE WATERS WILL
TEND TO KEEP HUMIDITY AROUND THE REGION, BUT WITH THE VERY HOT PART
OF THE AIRMASS GONE, THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT SHOULD BE GONE AND
TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY FCST TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGHS.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
THE FCST UNCERTAIN. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO REACH THE FCST AREA.
THE NAM SHOWS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM, THE GFS DOES NOT. HOWEVER, THE
GFS KEEPS THE WEATHER UNSETTLED AS SHORT WAVES KEEP MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES. DUE TO THIS,
CHC POPS WILL BE FCST FOR MORE SHWRS AND TSTMS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE FOLLOWING HPC FCSTS AND AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL RUNS...A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING
WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD DEVELOP
MOST ANYTIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER, THE DRY PERIODS SHOULD
OUTNUMBER THE WET TIMES, IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THE WET VS
DRY TIMES THIS FAR OUT. WE ALL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TO GAGE HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT ANY OF OUR
ZONES, ALTHOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL GENERALLY STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
HOT STEAMY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY AND NOT THE ATMOSPHERE
IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE. A SVR TSTM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF
FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL 8 PM EDT. AS OF BROADCAST TIME, THE
ONLY TSTMS WERE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOOK FOR THE
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WIND TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS THEN, DEPENDING
UPON THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFF THE CAROLINAS, THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE WATERS MAY BE AFFECTED BY BOTH WIND AND SEAS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS SHOULD BEGIN WITH SWELLS SOMETIME TOWARD THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL MARINE INTEREST NEAR AND OFFSHORE SHOULD CHECK
THE LATEST OFFSHORE FORECAST BEING ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER AND THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR LOCATION OF THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LATEST FROM THE TPC GRAPHIC FROM THEIR SITE
IS THAT THERE IS A 30-40% CHC OF TROPICAL STORM FORM WINDS(34KT)
REACHING THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 8 AM SUN.

RIP CURRENTS, GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THERE IS A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THE RISK INDEX RISING TO THE MODERATE OR HIGH RISK
AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY. IF IT DOES OCCURS, PLEASE CHECK WITH THE
LOCAL BEACH PATROLS FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS IN THE SURF.

THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT THE DELAWARE LIGHT BUOY (44009)
REACHED 27.8 DEGREES(82.0 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT) AND BROKE THE MARK
FOR JULY BY ONE TENTH OF A DEGREE FAHRENHEIT. THE BUOY IS ABOUT 20
STATUTE MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THE ALL TIME HIGH FOR THE BUOY
WAS SET IN AUGUST LAST YEAR WHEN IT REACH 84.7 DEGREES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR PAZ067>071 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR PAZ060>062 UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-016-020>023-027 UNTIL
     8 PM TUESDAY.
  ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR NJZ015-017>019 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR DEZ001 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR DEZ002-003 UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020 UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...EBERWINE

MARINE...EBERWINE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>024-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-191100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
505 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. PLEASE REFER TO FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

ALSO, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
527 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMBURG                 40.56N 75.98W
07/18/2006                   BERKS              PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER OUTAGE REPORTED AT THE HAMBURG STATE POLICE
            STATION.

0520 PM     HAIL             4 NE HAMBURG            40.60N 75.93W
07/18/2006  M0.75 INCH       BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN ALBANY TOWNSHIP.

&&

GORSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMBURG                 40.56N 75.98W
07/18/2006                   BERKS              PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER OUTAGE REPORTED AT THE HAMBURG STATE POLICE
            STATION.

0520 PM     HAIL             4 NE HAMBURG            40.60N 75.93W
07/18/2006  M0.75 INCH       BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN ALBANY TOWNSHIP.

0614 PM     HAIL             3 N EASTON              40.73N 75.22W
07/18/2006  E1.25 INCH       NORTHAMPTON        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN FORKS TWP.

0614 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N EASTON              40.73N 75.22W
07/18/2006                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            62 MPH WIND GUST IN FORKS TWP.

0614 PM     HAIL             PHILLIPSBURG            40.69N 75.18W
07/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       WARREN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN PHILLIPSBURG

&&

ROBERTSON