Hail in Pennsylvania, August 25, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGE IN VERY SHORT TERM WAS TO PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z WRF...RESULTING IN
E TO NE WIND FLOW OVER REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION ONGOING AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...AND 18Z
WRF BRINGS STRIPE OF 0.25+ QPF OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA..SO LEFT
POPS AS IS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS AFD BELOW..
YET ANOTHER DARNED IF YOU DO DARNED IF YOU DONT KIND OF FORECAST
TODAY WITH RESPECT TO THE RAIN FORECAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
STILL HUNG UP OVER THE AREA TODAY AND IT PRODUCED A FAIR AMOUNT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND FARTHER NORTH THIS MORNING, WHILE
THE AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY
DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EASTWARD. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TRYING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRY TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTH, AS WELL AS OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE FORMING AROUND
THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE
SOMETHING FORM SOMEWHERE ON ONE OF THESE BOUNDARIES, THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL STAY DRY. THE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. THE
DIFFICULT THING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS DETERMINING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND IN TURN THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AREAS
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE MORE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
COOLER TEMPS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WE TRIED TO TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT GENERALLY WE HAVE MOST EVERYONE WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP. THAT
BEING SAID, MORE AREAS MAY STAY MORE DRY THAN WET. THE SPC HAS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SATURDAY WHERE THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SEE MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING
MORE INSTABILITY TO BUILD. AS ALWAYS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK HAS THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO
OUR WEST, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS. AS WE ENTER
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, WE COULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME,
WE WILL KEEP STRONG WORDING OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS
DURING EACH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST AND OUT OF THE
REGION BY THE END OF TUESDAY, BEGINNING OF WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IF ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAKING A LINE FROM FROM MY PREDECESSOR, THE FORECAST TAFS HAVE BEEN
WRITTEN IN AN OPTIMISTIC MANNER. BASED OFF RADAR TRENDS, WERE
SIDING CLOSER TO THE WRF THEN THE WET GFS.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD CONSISTS OF EITHER VFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. WELL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR OVERNIGHT AS
THE LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WE HAVE INDUCES SOME
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION, SCAS WILL NEED TO BE POSTED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. THE EAST WINDS LOOK REASONABLE, IT THE SPEEDS THAT
ARE IN QUESTION. AT THIS TIME WELL BUMP SPEEDS UP IN THE GRIDS (BUT
NOT AS FAST AS THE SOUNDINGS) AND CALL FOR LOW END SCA CONDITIONS
TOMORROW NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT 5 FOOT SEAS COULD
BE HAD AS EARLY AS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO LEVELS GREATER THAN 5 FEET. WELL TAKE A LOOK
AT THE 00Z RUN FOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE SOUTHERN WATERS LOOK
MORE TRANQUIL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI/ROBERTSON
AVIATION/MARINE...IOVINO/KRUZDLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
752 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-261100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
752 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL,
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE WEEKEND.